According to a report by Bloomberg Intelligence, the possible effects of the policies expected from the new economy management on Turkish banks were evaluated. The report predicts that the recent depreciation of the Turkish lira against the dollar may significantly affect the capital of Turkish banks. It is stated that the capital adequacy ratio of the four big domestic banks may decrease by 65 basis points, with the possibility of the TL depreciating.
In addition, it is predicted that the rise in bond rates may cause a loss of 200 billion liras if banks have a high amount of government bonds in their portfolios, and this situation may cause a 200 basis point decrease in the capital adequacy ratio of banks, causing it to regress to 15 percent.
The report emphasizes that the crisis management skills of Turkish banks will be tested this year, while referring to the 2018 crisis, it is stated that banks are familiar with interest-based shock therapies. It is stated that the CBRT can take measures by raising the policy rate and limiting the depreciation of the TL, as it has done in the past.
Markets expect the interest rate to be increased from 8.5 percent to 20 percent at the next meeting and the policy rate to reach 30 percent by the end of the year. However, according to corporate analysts, it is stated that the government may tend to maintain its growth and employment priority, while the market may prefer a return to tighter policies.
On the other hand, Bloomberg Economics expects the policy rate for the end of 2023. 24′e revised. It is stated that the tightening in monetary policy and a return to orthodox policies in order to control inflation are important in terms of restoring confidence and predictability.
The general expectation is that if interest rates are in the range of 14-18 percent, growth will be around 2.7-3.0 percent in the 2023-2024 period.
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