September of 2021 has not been a much better month for Bitcoin. Last September, the asset’s valuation dropped from $49.1k to $41.4k. Despite this, the bullish sentiment remained intact and the BTC price hit $69k in November 2021, making it an ATH. However, 2022 brought price decreases. The leading asset continued price action in 2022, mostly in a downtrend.
September is a historically bad month for Bitcoin
In fact, September has historically been one of the worst for Bitcoin. The leading cryptocurrency has fallen every September since 2017. According to the data, BTC has been losing an average of 7.88% in September declines over the past six years. So what price levels are analysts predicting for Bitcoin in September 2022?
Analyst expects downward price action
We are currently in September. For Bitcoin, the current situation is quite difficult, just as it has been in the last few years. Shawn Cruz, Chief Trading Strategist at TD Ameritrade, talked about some of the macro events that are expected to happen this month. He then said the following about what to expect in BTC price:
“September is probably going to be a pretty volatile month. The probability of a downward price movement is very high. You’re probably seeing a slightly more negative expectation of where things might end up.”
CPI data and FED meeting this month
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its CPI report for August at 8am EST on September 13. Participants follow inflation closely. The new data will therefore act as an upside or downside catalyst for the Bitcoin price. CPI data in July signaled a decline in inflation for the first time since April 2022. But worries persisted because food and housing prices continued to rise. For the August data, which is expected to be released in September, Forbes said:
“The CPI data for August seems to highlight the falling inflation similar to July.”
In addition, the FED’s FOMC meeting will also take place this month. It is highly possible that the FED will increase interest rates at the meeting on September 20-21. According to Reuters, traders expect a third rate hike of 75 basis points and raise the benchmark rate to 3%-3.25%. However, there is also the possibility of an increase of 50 basis points. We can say that the lower the increase, the better for the Bitcoin price. CPI data on September 13 will directly affect the decision of the FED.
Ethereum Merge is coming
In addition to the CPI and FED decisions, there is another factor affecting the market. This is the Merge upgrade that Ethereum plans to perform on September 15. cryptocoin.com As we reported, Ethereum will switch to the Proof-of-Stake model with the Merge upgrade. The upgrade, scheduled for September 15, comes almost at the same time as the CPI data. Therefore, it is possible for the market to rise despite a negative CPI data.
Yesterday, the Bellatrix hard fork went live and a huge price spike appeared in the market. Therefore, when the real Merge is released, people will likely buy Bitcoin and altcoins. So, there is a possibility that the Merge upgrade will trigger a massive rally in the cryptocurrency market. Leah Wald, CEO of Valkyrie Investments, said:
“When thinking about what’s going on here, it’s important to look at last September and the pre-September. However, we do not consider each market environment individually, especially depending on your trading style and time horizon.”
Bitcoin can rise above $ 23 thousand
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $21,224, its highest level since August 26. The price seems to be heading towards the key $21,650 resistance level. If this level is broken, the bulls are more likely to take BTC to $22,000. If that happens, the RSI currently at 53.95 will likely reach 61.50, converging to a collision.
As a result, in the short term, there is an increase in bullish sentiment. But as sentiment in BTC grows, so will questions about how long this can potentially be sustained. Based on this, some expect further consolidation in September. However, it is highly likely to occur in a higher range than the support and resistance levels in August. The key technical indicator in September will be the probability of the RSI rising to the 61.50 level. If that happens, Bitcoin will likely be above $23,000 by the end of the month.
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