Bitcoin Just a few days before the halving, the price recovery continues. The price came very close to recording a new high yesterday as it climbed around $72,700. While the general recovery is liquidating short positions, the general expectation is upward.
Arthur Hayes stated that April is perfect for shorting due to the liquidity crunch:
“The rumor that the halving is positive for cryptocurrency prices has spread widely. When most market participants agree on a particular outcome, the opposite often occurs. This is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will drop by half…
“Given that the halving is occurring at a time when dollar liquidity is tighter than usual, it will add impetus to a raging conflagration of crypto assets.”
However, Peter Brandt and Benjamin Cowen made similar but different predictions for the BTC price during the halving event compared to Hayes.
As we reported as Koinfinans.com, Brandt and Cowen expect a trend similar to the spot BTC ETF launch. This means that the price may first increase and then decrease.
As Arthur Hayes points out in his prediction, sales may decrease with the beginning of May.
According to Coinglass Open Interest (OI) data, it is noteworthy that OI has fluctuated between $31 billion and $36 billion since mid-March. Open interest rates indicate the number of open futures contracts and, in turn, indicate liquidity levels in the futures market.
The sideways movement in OI corresponds to BTC price consolidation around the previous cycle’s all-time high. A sharp decline in the metric could confirm Hayes’ bias regarding a decline in liquidity.
