US institute sees Wagner army as a threat to Putin
According to US experts, the Wagner army of Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to pose a potential threat to Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin and his power apparatus. “Putin continues to allow Wagner and Prigozhin to operate in Russia and potentially pose a threat to his regime “It said in an analysis by the US Institute for War Studies ISW on Saturday evening (local time) in Washington. Even two weeks after the short-lived Wagner uprising with probably 25,000 mercenaries against the Russian military leadership, Prigozhin and the commanders could move freely in Russia.
According to the ISW experts, Putin either has remarkable confidence in Prigozhin’s pledged loyalty, or he is incapable of taking action against the Wagner troops. The Kremlin chief had promised Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries impunity after they surprisingly ended the uprising. The president offered the mercenaries to sign a contract with the defense ministry to retreat home or to neighboring Belarus.
In Minsk, ruler Alexander Lukashenko mediated the end of the uprising and offered Prigozhin’s army bases. According to Lukashenko’s most recent information, neither Prigozhin nor the troops have yet settled there. The ISW experts also referred to statements by a Wagner commander that the troops were currently on vacation until August. According to the commander Anton Elizarov, combat name Lotos, the Kremlin could also try to bring the mercenaries operating in Africa and the Middle East under its control.
The ISW experts said that the reorganization of the Wagner army and its transfer to Belarus could not be clear until the fall. The exact agreements between Putin and his former confidante Prigozhin and other consequences of the Wagner uprising, which quickly ended, also remained unclear. “But Ukraine has already benefited from the rebellion and can continue to benefit from it,” the ISW analysis said. Wagner was once Russia’s most effective combat unit in Ukraine, but will probably not play a role in Kiev’s ongoing counter-offensive. Moscow’s warfare capabilities could also be permanently weakened.