Brussels The Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko was inspired a long time ago by the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: He brings a large number of refugees to the EU’s external borders, and with the help of his military he exerts pressure on people to storm the borders – around Brussels and blackmail the other European capitals and take revenge for punitive measures taken against him.
After the EU imposed sanctions against Belarus for human rights violations this spring, Lukashenko announced that he no longer wanted to stop refugees on their way to Europe. However, he does more than just that: he deliberately flies them in from abroad.
According to the landing plans of Minsk Airport, around 40 flights a week from Istanbul, Damascus and Dubai are to land by March – the major hubs that connect the Middle East and the Middle East with Europe and are used by migrants. This means that the number of flights from the region has doubled compared to winter 2019/2020.
According to estimates by the German government, 800 to 1000 migrants land in Belarus every day. Most of them come from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Iran.
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Since the summer, the Belarusian EU neighbors Lithuania, Latvia and Poland have been faced with the problem of no longer having control of the large number of illegal border crossings deliberately brought about by Belarus. Lukashenko’s power game is currently focusing on the Polish border in particular. Large crowds have been driven there again since last weekend.
The Polish security forces try to deter the migrants with a massive contingent.
(Photo: AP)
Warsaw is relying on massive border protection to bring the situation under control. The country has declared a state of emergency, stationed thousands of soldiers at the border and banned journalists and humanitarian workers from entering. Accordingly, violent scenes are suspected.
Poland wants to equip its Belarusian border permanently with multi-row fences, motion detectors and steel posts with coils of barbed wire. The “barrier” – as the Polish government calls the planned border security – should be 5.5 meters high; the opposition speaks of a “wall”. The cost: 350 million euros.
According to estimates by the German government, 800 to 1000 migrants land in Belarus every day.
(Photo: action press)
However, the EU Commission rejects the idea and does not want to support Poland financially. Instead, it relies on helping in the conventional way: the EU border protection agency Frontex, the asylum authority Easo and the police authority Europol are ready to help with the registration of migrants, processing asylum applications and the fight against smuggling, said a commission spokeswoman on Monday. Poland must, however, specifically request this help. Although Warsaw was encouraged to do so, a specific request has not yet been made.
Furthermore, talks are already underway in Brussels about further sanctions against Belarus. The EU foreign ministers will meet next week and want to discuss this.
One idea is to sanction airlines that carry out the migration flights. Placing the Belarusian airline Belavia on the sanctions list has been under investigation since October. A flight ban in EU airspace has already been imposed.
Poland has significantly strengthened the security of the EU’s external border.
(Photo: AP)
In addition, one is looking for talks with countries from which the flights to Minsk take off – for example with Turkey. The EU wants to prove with all its might that it is not powerless and that Lukashenko cannot use the flow of refugees as an EU destabilization measure.
Another possible solution would be a refugee agreement with Ukraine, as suggested by the influential migration researcher Gerald Knaus. He also developed the EU-Turkey agreement. According to this, the partner country accepts illegal refugees – in return, refugees who are already being cared for in the country can legally enter the EU. It is unlikely that Ukraine, which would itself like to be a member of the EU, would then use refugees as an attempt at blackmail.
According to Minsk Airport’s landing plans, around 40 weekly flights from Istanbul, Damascus and Dubai are to land by March.
(Photo: dpa)
A big problem for the EU Commission remains: its conflict with Poland. Since the country does not accept the rule of law and the primacy of EU law, one actually wants to punish its government. The EU Commission is now getting into trouble with the refugee problem: on the one hand, Poland must be helped – also to demonstrate EU unity to third countries – and on the other hand, the country also wants to be put in its place.
More: In an interview, migration researcher Gerald Knaus explains how the EU can deal with Alexander Lukashenko’s brutal policies