Most recently, the Defense Minister spoke of the fact that the Bundeswehr has been cut back enormously in recent years
(Photo: dpa)
In the liberation struggle against the Russian troops, the Ukraine uses up more material and ammunition than the western states can reproduce. If Western industrial production is not ramped up substantially and Ukraine lacks a steady supply of artillery ammunition or spare parts, for example, it will be less able to oppose the Russian war of annihilation. Because wars are won by those who can fill their gaps more quickly.
At the same time, since the beginning of the Russian war of aggression, the federal government has repeatedly stated that the Bundeswehr should become the most modern and powerful army in Europe. But the German armed forces are far from it: they lack material, from ammunition to aircraft, and personnel.
Because Berlin has long oriented itself to other security policy assumptions (rather planning global crisis management as in Afghanistan than defense against Russia) and because years of insufficient funding, a lack of political leadership and mismanagement have eroded the Bundeswehr materially.
Both tasks – support for Ukraine and an operational Bundeswehr – are connected. Because the key to this lies largely in how cooperation with the armaments industry is structured. The success of the turning point also depends on whether constructive and reliable cooperation with industry is possible and whether the armaments industrial capacities are successfully ramped up.
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If that succeeds, there would be an additional advantage: Europe would strengthen its competitive, innovative industrial and technological base and thus come closer to the goal of strategic sovereignty (which, incidentally, is also stated in the coalition agreement).
There is a certain irony in the fact that the armaments industry, which is so controversial in Germany, can now almost become a savior. Unfortunately, despite various high-level meetings between industry and government, this has only been achieved to a limited extent so far. Ultimately, there are two major issues that are problematic: the complicated relationship with the armaments industry and its reputation, and sticking to well-known but inefficient processes.
According to the Bundeswehr, it currently has more than 180,000 active soldiers.
(Photo: dpa)
The German procurement system is designed for peacetime, not for rapid rearmament in response to a crisis. The current structures and processes are not suitable to manage the inflow of large amounts of equipment.
An overly cautious system has developed in which risk avoidance seems to be more important than the rapid deployment of new equipment. The interaction between the Bundeswehr with its ideas about its own needs, the Ministry of Defense as the planning and processing center and Parliament with its important control function does not work smoothly either.
Procurement is too often not the subject of transparent and accountable decisions, but rather a negotiation process involving multiple actors and strong lobbying.
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The image of the armaments industry is at least as complicated: Even if you need it suddenly, the past and a certain stigmatization hang over it. The industry appears publicly almost exclusively through scandals, through influence, as well as late, overpriced deliveries that do not meet the requirements.
A turning point for the Bundeswehr and Europe’s defense also means a turning point in relation to industry.
It also suffers from the reputation of wanting to profit from war and not being a reliable partner. Now all of a sudden, politicians want the other side of industry: reliable equipment for the defense forces, an innovation factor in the technology sector, as a field for cooperation with European partners and an element of European sovereignty.
It is primarily politics that must overcome this balancing act. If it wants to crack the industrial bottleneck, it has to recognize the urgency of the current situation and radically adapt procurement and decision-making. A reform of the interaction between industry, politics and the Federal Armed Forces would be necessary at national, but also at European level.
In order to cover the gaps in the Bundeswehr and the needs of Ukraine, the industry needs more transparency, reliability and predictability – but it must also deliver these and must not take the current needs as carte blanche. Change is necessary on both sides. France has proclaimed an “economie de guerre”, a war economy. No matter how you call it: A turning point for the Bundeswehr and Europe’s defense also means a turning point in relation to industry.
The author heads the security policy research group of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP). She is a member of the Advisory Board on Civilian Crisis Prevention and Peacebuilding at the Federal Foreign Office.
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