BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes recently outlined his market views and strategy for the coming months in a January 5 blog post. In his friendly and direct style, Hayes explained his crypto portfolio composition. He also detailed a trading strategy focused on Bitcoin’s expected correction. In this regard, Hayes predicts a strong Bitcoin correction of 20-30 percent by the beginning of March.
A 20-30% correction is on the table for Bitcoin until the beginning of March!
Arthur Hayes says he has allocated a significant portion of his portfolio to Bitcoin and Ethereum. In this context, he explains that it accounts for about 70%. However, he refers to his other assets as “shitcoins.” In fact, it highlights their low liquidity and the poor liquidity of their associated derivatives. This lack of liquidity leads Hayes to claim that he must rely on Bitcoin derivatives for a liquid macro hedge and use options for a specific trading pattern that he expects to resolve within two weeks.
Announcing his prediction, Hayes expects a sharp correction in the Bitcoin price by the beginning of March. The famous forecaster predicts a healthy correction of 20% to 30% in BTC. Arthur Hayes also points to the potential impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs listing in the US. He expects these to increase the price of Bitcoin. He likely predicts that BTC could touch $60,000 or approach its 2021 peak of $70,000. If this increase is combined with the withdrawal of dollar liquidity, it could trigger a more severe correction of 30% to 40%. Hayes is considering halting Bitcoin purchases until this crucial milestone.
Hayes takes a derivative position in line with his prediction!
cryptokoin.comAs you follow from , the focus of the market is on possible spot Bitcoin ETF approval. The effects of this approval or rejection on the BTC price are controversial. That’s why traders take positions according to their predictions. Detailing his trading plan, Hayes plans to execute a large put position at the end of February, opting for ‘puts’ expiring on June 28 instead of March 29 to reduce negative theta decay. He plans to choose a strike price between 20-25% of the money based on the current three-month June futures contract price and gain significant leverage on these puts.
Hayes emphasizes the criticality of exit timing, underlining the path dependency of option payouts and the risk of losing money despite accurate market predictions if the position is not closed on time. He hopes to take advantage of a market correction he anticipates and make a profit. In this regard, it aims to close its put position between 12-20 March. Looking beyond this potential correction, Hayes sees continued bullishness in the crypto market through the end of March, predicting a revival in crypto value amid expectations of the Bitcoin block reward halving and resolution of market turbulence caused by regulatory actions.
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