Turkish President Erdogan welcomes the participants.
(Photo: dpa)
Markets are only too happy to cling to hope. Investors are now speculating on peace in Ukraine. And given the human suffering in Ukraine’s towns and villages, it’s understandable that the markets suck up any glimmer of hope. Nothing Ukraine needs now more than an end to hostilities.
Alone: Unfortunately, it is hard to believe that after a good four weeks of war Vladimir Putin will be satisfied with what is being discussed in the negotiations in Istanbul: security guarantees for Ukraine in exchange for the country’s neutrality, no foreign military bases on Ukrainian territory , 15 years of talks on the status of the annexed Crimean Peninsula.
It is doubtful that Putin will accept such a negotiation result. Then the situation of the Russian army would have to be even more devastating than Western secret services and Ukrainian generals are already reporting: namely hopeless and on the verge of being defeated. Given Moscow’s arsenal of cruise missiles, missiles and artillery, this is unlikely.
All just a pause to change tactics?
It may be that the ground offensive has come to a standstill for the time being. But there is much to suggest that Putin is merely regrouping his armed forces and changing his plans: away from an invasion with tanks and towards massive air strikes in order to prepare the ground for an army offensive in the first place. Putin was too sure of victory, too convinced of the superiority of his army – and he underestimated the resistance of the Ukrainians.
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It is unlikely that Putin will be satisfied with the results of the negotiations.
(Photo: dpa)
Putin has ruined Russia’s reputation, he has caused great economic damage to his country – and all for minimal land gains? No, that is unlikely.
Rather, he should now say: We have negotiated, Ukraine is not giving in enough, now there is a big war, with massive air strikes as a prelude. Then the stock exchanges will have their doubts again.
More on this: Putin has not lost yet