Last week, Bitcoin and crypto prices left behind a month and a quarter that could be bullish for July. As the market continues to evolve and attract investors around the world, it is important to keep abreast of macroeconomic events that can significantly affect the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Several key events are planned for this week that could shape market sentiment and influence the direction of Bitcoin and crypto prices. Bitcoin starts the first week of July with a sigh of relief for traders as the $30,000 support continues. BTC price action refuses to succumb to the bears after a 20% gain in Q2 with weekly and monthly timeframes looking strong. What’s next?
What’s next for bitcoin and altcoins? What are the macroeconomic developments?
cryptocoin.com As we have also reported, the week starts today with the release of ISM Manufacturing data. These data provide insight into the performance of the manufacturing sector in the United States, a critical component of the overall economy. Positive data indicates a strong manufacturing sector, which typically leads to increased business investment and consumer spending. This, in turn, could support the traditional financial sector as investors gain confidence in economic growth prospects. BTC and crypto could also benefit from this.
On Tuesday, July 4, US markets will be closed for Independence Day. All eyes will be on the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday, July 5th. These minutes provide a detailed account of the discussions and decisions made during the last FOMC meeting. Investors will closely analyze the minutes for any indication of the Fed’s stance on monetary policy, interest rates, and inflation. Any hint of possible changes in monetary policy could have a significant impact on both traditional markets and cryptocurrencies. For example, if the minutes suggest a more hawkish tone, signaling a potential tightening in monetary policy, it could lead to a sell-off for stocks, Bitcoin and crypto.
A series of important reports on the labor market and economic activities will be released on Thursday, July 6th. The Service Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, which gives information about the performance of the service sector, will be announced. Also, the Unemployment Benefit Applications report is included in the unemployment benefit application. Another important report is the Job Gaps and Workforce Turnover Survey (JOLTS). These data give an idea about the dynamism of the labor market. The highlight of the week for both traditional markets and the crypto space could be the unveiling of the June US Jobs Report as it could be one of the key factors influencing the Fed’s next rate decision on July 26. This report includes data on non-farm employment, unemployment rates and wage growth.
Bitcoin price above $30,000
Meanwhile, the new week saw a visit on Bitstamp for $30,850. Thus, it marked the latest attempt for BTC to the $31,000 mark and year highs. The lack of fuel for a trend change is causing more optimistic traders to wait and see for the upside continuation. “My Bitcoin plan remains the same,” popular trader Jelle summed up to his Twitter followers in part of his latest analysis. Jelle referred to the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), which, along with its counterpart, the simple moving average (SMA), continues to act as market support after a brief struggle in June.
Other trader Crypto Ed is hoping for a rise towards $36,000 or even $40,000. However, he first considered the possibility of a pullback to $28,000. He said the market structure remained “good” despite the last-minute volatility towards the end of the month as BTC/USD rose as high as $29,500. Meanwhile, Material Indicators highlighted the role of Bitcoin whales in maintaining the BTC price range.
How are the stocks and banking sector moving?
Meanwhile, stocks are pushing 52-week highs and trading is doing great,” financial comment source The Kobeissi Letter described the week ahead as “short but important.” Elsewhere, there is increasing interest in the US banking sector. Regional banks continue to struggle, as evidenced by the performance of the KBW Regional Banking Index. Even Bank of America (BoA) is on the radar for its loss-making bond purchases; This is a problem faced by the German Central Bank as well. “These incredible headlines don’t get enough attention,” says angel investor Balaji Srivinsan of a Financial Times report on Bundesbank’s plight. Meanwhile, Kobeissi warned that the US bank booms that triggered the Bitcoin bull run in March bear significant similarities to the current state of BoA.
Bitcoin miners challenge record exchange transfers
Bitcoin miners have underlined the importance of BTC price action to cross and hold $30,000 – but perhaps not in the way the bulls want it. Data from Glassnode reveals a huge increase in the number of coins miners send to exchanges. This increase even surpassed the levels in April 2021, when BTC/USD hit the first all-time high of the year at $58,000. “After the spot price surged above the psychologically key $30,000 level, Bitcoin miners continued to send large amounts of BTC to exchanges,” Glassnode commented.
However, miner balances have maintained a slow overall uptrend since the beginning of 2023. According to Glassnode data, the balance count, which was 1,824,377 BTC on January 1, reached 1,827,916 BTC on July 2. Despite the sales, there is little evidence to suggest that BTC miners are experiencing difficulties. Hash rate is currently near all-time highs, while network difficulty is just 3.26% below the record levels seen last month.
Profitable BTC hodlers refuse to sell
A more inspiring picture comes from loyal Bitcoin investors who refuse to sell no matter the price. Even in the context of this year’s earnings, Bitcoin hodlers remain committed to not making a profit en masse. This is also reflected in the amount of BTC supply that is now considered “illiquid” or unreachable if strong buying pressure returns. Glassnode’s metric of illiquid supply change is “extremely high” and currently at levels never seen outside of the trough of the 2022 bear market. As prices rose, so did hodler belief.
Sentiment reflects investor indecision
Finally, the nervous nature of the average crypto market participant continues to be firmly displayed in the sentiment data. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index continues to highlight how volatile sentiment is based on how Bitcoin handles the $30,000 mark. It is not just BTC/USD that is facing an important resistance/support flipping task. ETH is also working to get back $ 2,000. As such, Fear & Greed continues to oscillate between the mid-50s and mid-60s and represents the market sentiment between “neutral” and “greed”.
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