5 Developments That Will Affect Bitcoin in the Last Week of September!

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Bitcoin (BTC) started the last week of September with a stubborn range hovering around $26,000. As the month draws to a close, it reflects a traditionally lackluster period for BTC price action, marked by an unimpressive weekly close. Despite a busy week full of macroeconomic events, Bitcoin still faces significant challenges, including the release of the United States’ Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) figures on September 28 and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data the next day. But the spotlight is on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who will make a major speech a week after the Fed decided to keep US interest rates at current high levels. Inflation remains a hot topic as we head into Q4, but Bitcoin is struggling to find clear direction week after week. As the countdown to the monthly close continues, the crypto community is eagerly watching for signs of a breakout.

“Death cross” tension in Bitcoin price

BTC price performance took a hit after the weekly close on September 24, falling as low as $26,000. This level managed to remain support, but liquidations were observed for both long and short BTC positions, indicating continued uncertainty in the market. Some analysts are drawing parallels between current market behavior and 2019, suggesting that Bitcoin could follow a similar bearish fractal. This sentiment has led to discussions about a potential downside target near $20,000.

Keith Alan, co-founder of tracking resource Material Indicators, spotted a “death cross” on weekly timeframes where the falling 21-week simple moving average crosses below its rising 200-week counterpart. This phenomenon highlights the recent weakness in price action, but Alan notes that it could be invalidated if BTC/USD regains $26,500. While some remain cautious about Bitcoin’s short-term prospects, others maintain a more optimistic outlook. Credible Crypto believes that a rebalancing of the market composition could result in a return to $27,000, indicating a noticeable accumulation in the market.

How will September 2023 close?

Despite the recent weakness, Bitcoin is still in positive territory for September, up 0.8% year to date. This is a rare feat by historical standards, as September typically provides a bearish prelude to more significant rallies seen in October. October, often referred to as “Uptober” among crypto enthusiasts, is already generating excitement. Michaël van de Poppe, CEO of trading firm Eight, suggests that the start of October could provide the catalyst for the total crypto market cap to rise above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $25,700.

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What are the next macro events?

As we approach the end of September, macroeconomic events could cause significant volatility in Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets. Revised US Q2 GDP figures and comments from Fed Chairman Powell, along with other speakers, will be closely watched to gauge future economic policy. PCE data, known for measuring inflation trends, will also play an important role in market sentiment. Additionally, the threat of a U.S. government shutdown due to budget negotiations adds an additional layer of uncertainty to the mix.

Bitcoin exchange balances are critical

Bitcoin’s availability on exchanges is decreasing, but analysts like Willy Woo warn against celebrating this as a bullish sign. Woo argues that the synthetic nature of exchanges’ BTC balances means that decreasing supply on exchanges does not necessarily mean increasing scarcity. He suggests that approval of a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US could help fix this problem. Woo notes that futures markets played a key role in shaping the market outlook in early 2022, before BTC/USD hit a two-year low in November 2022.

BTC’s flexibility in 2023 attracted attention

Despite short-term price fluctuations, some analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin’s overall health in 2023. These include the popular trader and analyst known as Mustache, who believes current levels may represent the last chance to “buy the dip” in BTC in 2023. Uploading a chart comparing the current situation with that of 2020, Mustache also noted “fascinating” similarities in Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI). He then placed emphasis on holding the 200-week EMA as support.

“95% are expecting lower prices that will not happen,” Mustache wrote, along with another chart that places BTC/USD in an expanding “megaphone” structure. Comparisons with 2020 on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) highlight intriguing similarities, with some traders seeing current levels as a last chance to “buy the bottom.” The 200-week EMA remains support, reinforcing belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential.

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5 Developments That Will Affect Bitcoin in the Last Week of September!


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