2023/06 (2023 first half) profit forecasts! Get ready for shocks and surprises

The countdown has begun for the 2023 first half balance sheets of listed companies. Shock expectations for bank stocks and surprise profits for some other companies may be at the door. Rasyonet compiled the profit estimates made by 20 intermediary institutions.

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Base effect shock in bank stocks

According to the forecasts, the decline in profitability in the banking sector will continue. Bank shares, which operate with high profitability due to the high inflation period in 2022 and always announce profits above expectations, will make a balance sheet statement in the first half of 2023 under the base effect. Although inflation remains high, we may see more real balance sheets instead of swollen balance sheets since it is still in a downward trend compared to the base period in 2022. According to the estimations made by brokerage houses, the total profit figure to be announced by 7 banking shares (annualized data) will reach 238 billion TL. This means that there will be an average of 21 percent decline in the profitability of these 7 banking stocks, which reached an annualized profitability of 302 billion TL in the first quarter of 2023. According to analysts’ estimates, the highest decline in annualized profits is foreseen as VAKBN stock with 41 percent. Let us remind you again that profit forecasts are based on the average of the forecasts of 20 intermediary institutions that send their profit forecasts to the data and analysis platform Rasyonet.

So what does annualized profit mean? It is useful to open this point so that our readers do not get confused. The forecasts are for the six-month balance sheet and income forecasts of the companies. However, valuation multipliers such as price/earnings (p/k) are calculated over the annual profits of the companies. Therefore, in order to be the subject of this calculation, the profit forecasts for the companies for the interim period need to be consolidated with retrospective four-quarter data. This is calculated by subtracting the profits of the first six months of 2022 from the annual profits announced by the companies in the 2022/12 period and adding the profit forecasts for the first six months of 2023. Thus, an annualized profit figure is reached by consolidating the data for four quarters together with the profit forecasts in total. Thus, it is possible to see the course of annualized profits more accurately by comparing both the annualized figures for the first quarter of 2023 and the annual profit figures of 2022/12.

Surprise expectation in insurance stocks

Now, to return to the forecasts, high profit growth expectations in some insurance companies do not go unnoticed. According to annualized data, compared to the first quarter, AKGRT stock is expected to increase by 205 percent, ANSGR stock by 77 percent and AGESA stock by 16 percent. There are also high profit forecasts for TURSG stocks.

Stocks with the highest earnings growth expectations

Apart from the insurance shares, it is notable that the shares of AYDEM, DOHOL, ENKAI, GLCVY, ISGYO, LOGO, OTKAR, OZKGY, PGSUS, SOKM, TAVHL are distinguished by high profit expectations.

In our next analysis, we will evaluate the situation of stocks in terms of valuation multiplier price/earnings ratio for the readers of Kriptokoin.com.

2023/06 profit and loss estimates for 91 companies traded on Borsa Istanbul