According to on-chain analyst and economist Willy Woo, Bitcoin market cycles have completely changed and are now shaped differently than in previous eras. The data model provided by the analyst shows that the current downtrend may be coming to an end.
We’re likely seeing the first signs of “The Last Cycle” thesis playing out. 3 relatively short bull and bear markets have transpired since the 2019 bottom already.
ie No more 4 year cycles. https://t.co/N3VzlKx2IA
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) March 20, 2022
Bitcoin’s new movement pattern
Back in October, Woo shared his “Final Cycle” thesis, which suggested that Bitcoin’s bearish and bullish cycles no longer move in four-year patterns. Essentially, Halving activity was the main driver of each cycle: Bitcoin accumulation was increasing just before the Halving, after which active distribution took place and the bearish cycle began in the period between Halvings.
However, after the massive influx of institutional funds, the ecosystem of the cryptocurrency market has matured considerably and has started to act independently of Bitcoin Halving events. The “unpredictable path” Bitcoin is currently taking is mostly due to natural supply and demand in the ecosystem, which the strong correlation with traditional markets easily explains.
As the market finds more important factors to follow, the cryptocurrency industry will most likely begin to act in ways similar to trends in emerging markets.
wave shortening
An additional piece of evidence in favor of the thesis presented by the analyst is the constant shortening of each Bitcoin wave. Beginning in 2010, the cryptocurrency’s initial rapid price surge was the longest, while the second and third waves were significantly shorter.
Alongside the short trends, Woo brought up the 100-day correction that started in April, when most of the market was waiting for the rally to end and another year-long bear market. This did not happen as the price of the first cryptocurrency rose to almost $70,000.
Disclaimer: What is written here is not investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments are high-risk investments. Every investment decision is under the individual’s own responsibility. Finally, Koinfinans and the author of this content cannot be held responsible for personal investment decisions.