Will Ukraine become part of the EU? Why membership is a long way off

Brussels The leaders of the EU are open to Ukraine’s possible accession. Council President Charles Michel announced on Tuesday that the European Council would seriously examine the legitimate application.

Michel agreed to the request as far as is within his competence. EU accession and even the granting of candidate status require unanimity in the European Council, the body of heads of state and government.

Michel can only moderate such a process. “It is up to us Europeans to rise to the occasion,” he said. Accessions are a difficult topic, on which there are different assessments. However, the Council will face up to its responsibility.

Significant pressure is coming from many Member States. In a letter on Monday, eight Eastern European countries spoke out in favor of giving Ukraine immediate accession prospects. Hungary joined on Tuesday and called for the issue to be put on the agenda quickly.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a television interview on Monday: “Over time, they actually belong to us. You are one of us and we want to have you with us.” On Tuesday she added a combative speech: Selensky told her about the Ukrainians’ dream of becoming part of the EU.

There is still a long way to go until then. But after the end of the war, the following steps will be discussed. “No one can doubt that a people standing up so bravely belongs in our European family,” she said.

Ursula von der Leyen

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had said to Ukraine: “Over time, they actually belong to us. They are one of us and we want them with us.”

(Photo: Sepp Spiegl)

It does not currently appear realistic that there will be a rapid accession. The offer is more symbolic of how the EU intends to fulfill its new role as a geopolitical player. Von der Leyen has drawn ridicule over the past two years for claiming to head a “geopolitical” commission.

Now EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the current crisis is “the moment when geopolitical Europe is born”. This means that Europe uses its “hard power” to assert its interests against others and to enforce things. This is not only possible with weapons, but also efficiently with sanctions.

Other means of support

France is reserved on the question of EU membership. Élysée circles said that Ukraine is a “country in the heart of Europe” and that its pro-European orientation must be supported. But it is also important “not to make promises that we cannot keep”. Accession to the EU is about a “long-term debate”.

A senior adviser to President Emmanuel Macron said France took a “position of respect for Ukraine’s European aspirations in a context where everything can change very brutally”.

One only has to imagine the case that Ukraine is quickly conquered by Russia. Then an accession process could not be completed. Should the Ukrainians’ resistance be successful, the first step would be to further strengthen Kyiv’s capacities in the fight for its sovereignty.

The strategic perspective of the French is also not only about the future relationship between the EU and Ukraine. The same questions would also arise with regard to other countries in the post-Soviet space, such as Moldova and Georgia. They would need European support to resist Russian pressure. But there could also be other means than EU membership.

Italy has not yet taken a clear position. Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio only stated that “the application to join the EU is legitimate”. Prime Minister Mario Draghi did not address this at all in his speech to Parliament on Tuesday.

>> Read here: EU accession in an urgent procedure? The most important answers to Ukraine’s membership application

For Matteo Salvini, party leader of the right-wing governing party Lega, the discussion comes at an inopportune time. One must “avoid everything” that “can upset the spirits” in the conflict. Every new proposal must be examined to see whether it is moving closer to peace – or further away from it.

In order to become a member of the EU, a country must be democratic and rule of law, respect human and minority rights and adopt the laws for the EU’s internal market. In addition, as with NATO, an accession country may not have any border disputes.

With the occupation of Crimea at the latest, membership has become a thing of the past. The strong influence of oligarchs on politics, deficits in the rule of law, corruption and ailing state finances could also stand in the way of this.

Recognition as a candidate for accession does not always lead to the start of negotiations, let alone accession. For example, Turkey was a candidate for accession for six years without negotiations having started. Instead of granting Ukraine candidate status, the EU could also include it in the customs union or in the Pesco alliance, in which joint defense projects are organized.

More: Commentary: EU Commission President von der Leyen is raising false expectations in Ukraine

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