Handelsblatt International correspondent Torsten Riecke analyzes interesting data and trends from all over the world in his weekly column. You can reach him at [email protected].
(Photo: Klawe Rzeczy)
For Olaf Scholz it is a paradox: the question of Ukraine’s possible NATO membership is bringing the Eastern European country to the brink of war with Russia. And this despite the fact that no one except Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky considers the answer to this question urgent or topical. For the German chancellor, the issue is so far off the agenda that it could even outlive the tenure of the “eternal” Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin.
So it’s quite possible that something else is behind the deployment of more than 150,000 Russian soldiers on the Ukrainian border. Robin Niblett, head of the British think tank Chatham House, was on to it when he asked the leaders of NATO and the European Union (EU) at the Munich Security Conference whether they would support Ukraine’s early EU accession.
In fact, there is some evidence that Putin is not only concerned with Russia’s supposed security interests, but that the Russian President fears above all the economic integration of Ukraine and the associated increase in prosperity and freedom in the western neighboring country.
This is supported by the fact that the dispute over Ukraine’s economic rapprochement with the EU only led to the Maidan revolution in 2014 and shortly afterwards to the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Donbass. It was no coincidence that the “deep and comprehensive free trade area” (DCFTA) negotiated with the EU and Ukraine was ready for signature at the time.
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Putin’s man in Kiev, Viktor Janokowitsch, initially put the association agreement on hold, but his successor Petro Poroshenko sealed the agreement with the EU after the revolution. Putin, who would have preferred to incorporate Ukraine into the Russian-dominated Eurasian Economic Union, immediately threatened “serious consequences” and still fears the “Westernization” of the neighbor to this day.
With his threats he himself accelerated the march to the West: according to the latest polls, more than two-thirds of Ukrainians are now in favor of their country joining the EU. 62 percent want to join NATO.
Europe needs to harden its soft power
The trade balances reflect Ukraine’s westward turn: While the exchange of goods with Russia has fallen sharply over the past ten years, imports and exports with the countries of the European Union have risen sharply. However, other countries such as the Republic of Moldova, which also signed an opt-out agreement with Brussels in 2014, have benefited far more economically from trade with the EU than Ukraine.
Geopolitically, the EU’s “soft power” seems to have paid off. It was not NATO membership, but Ukraine’s economic ties that removed the country from Moscow’s sphere of influence. Change through trade, the old credo of Ostpolitik still worked here: Trade with the West strengthens democracy, strengthens the rule of law and reduces corruption.
All things Putin despises. After all, he is in the process of forging an alliance of autocrats against the liberal democracies together with his comrade-in-arms, Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The crux of the matter, however, is that for Putin the “soft power” of the EU is at least as dangerous as the “hard power” of Ukraine’s NATO membership. EU accession would finally remove Ukraine from its sphere of influence and effectively “Finlandize” its neighbors. The Kremlin’s sole ruler is therefore reacting with the only means at his disposal: military power.
If the West wants to prevent the war from becoming a continuation of politics by other means, as in the case of Clausewitz, it must harden its “soft power”. Sanctions only have a deterrent effect if Putin knows what he is threatened with. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is therefore right to criticize the West for considering the war as a matter decided by Putin and citing new invasion dates almost every day, while still keeping its sanction powder dry.
More: Ukrainian President Zelensky on EU sanctions against Russia: “What are we waiting for?”