Why Putin’s offer to Erdogan is an air act

Istanbul This weekend Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the construction of a transshipment point for gas from Russia. Turkey and Russia would first make preparations together, after which action would be taken, Erdogan said on Friday, according to the state news agency Anadolu. “There is no delay here. We communicated this decision immediately to our Minister for Energy and Natural Resources today.”

Gazprom boss Alexey Miller is also involved in this project. According to the Turkish President, the western Turkish region of Thrace is the “most suitable location” for a distribution center.

Erdogan had met Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin the day before. Russia’s president had proposed using Russian gas to develop Turkey into a transhipment point and exchange for natural gas. “If Turkey and our potential buyers are interested, we could consider building another gas pipeline and creating a gas hub in Turkey for sale to third countries, mainly in Europe,” Putin offered his Turkish counterpart Erdogan According to the Interfax news agency. In addition, a gas exchange for price determination could also be set up in Turkey, suggested Putin.

Turkey has long aspired to become an energy hub. However, the new gas exchange in Turkey is threatening to become a shambles right from the start – and even in the Turkish capital it does not seem clear how far the project can mature.

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First of all, the facts are much more sober than the words of the two heads of state. Turkey is therefore initially examining a Russian proposal to make the country a gas hub for Europe. In fact, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also said that Turkey and Russia had first instructed their respective energy authorities to initiate technical studies. That doesn’t sound like a construction contract for a new pipeline.

Inauguration of the Turkstream Pipeline 2020

A pipeline through which gas flows from Russia to Turkey already exists.

(Photo: imago images/ITAR-TASS)

Speaking of the pipeline: there has long been a pipe from Russia through the Black Sea to western Turkey’s Thrace, including a distribution center: Turkstream. The pipeline was financed entirely by Gazprom and supplies Turkey and the Balkans in equal parts. On January 8, 2020, Turkstream was officially launched. The capacity is 31.5 billion cubic meters per year, spread over two pipeline strands.

Theoretically, Russian gas could also be transported via the existing Trans-Adriatic pipeline (TAP), which supplies Azerbaijani gas via the southern gas corridor via Turkey to southern Europe.

But this is where the problems begin: nobody wants to buy Russian gas anymore. The TAP pipeline and the Turkish extension TANAP to Azerbaijan were planned in 2015 with the aim of reducing dependence on Russia.

The benefit of a possible distribution center in western Turkey is therefore questionable. Forwarding the Russian gas via Turkey to the Middle East or Africa is unrealistic or expensive. There are also disputes in the eastern Mediterranean over how maritime borders are drawn – building a pipeline through disputed areas is unlikely.

Putin needs European gas buyers

It is more likely that Putin actually wanted to signal concessions to the Europeans with the offer to Erdogan. No wonder: the Russians are losing more and more customers for their gas, the income from which is used for the war.

Germany recently rejected another proposal by Putin to boost gas supplies to Europe via a line from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was never put into operation. Moscow had stopped gas supplies via Nord Stream 1, citing technical problems as the reason. The two Baltic Sea pipelines were badly damaged in explosions that several European countries attribute to sabotage. One strand of Nord Stream 2 is still intact.

>> Read here: Fourth leak discovered in Nord Stream tubes – German Navy dispatches minehunter

Now Putin apparently wants to test how far he can go with Turkey. If you talk to government officials in the Turkish capital Ankara, the situation is more sober. Nobody there wants to know anything about the start of construction.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also acknowledged that Putin’s proposal to deliver gas to Europe via Turkey had to do with the fact that he no longer saw the Nord Stream 1 and 2 Baltic Sea pipelines as “reliable” lines. However, the Russian proposal needs to be thoroughly examined. “There are investments that need to be made, they need to be reviewed,” Cavusoglu said at a press conference with his Qatari counterpart on Friday night.

It’s a matter of supply and demand, of how much of Europe is willing to buy gas from such a project. “This has to be worked out together,” Cavusoglu said. Turkey wants to ease Europe’s energy crisis, he added. The comprehensive weakening of Europe is not in Turkey’s interest.

More: Why Germany relies on Turkey for green hydrogen.

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