Why prophesied dramas do not become reality

Chemical park in the light

Even energy-intensive industry has recently been able to stabilize its production.

(Photo: Imago)

If you are looking for demonstrably good news, you should avoid the website of the Federal Statistical Office. If you search for the term “good” there, you will get exactly zero hits. That’s not surprising: since then, the Wiesbaden statisticians have been known for their sober pragmatism.

The listeners had to pay even more attention last Friday when the statistical office announced that German gross domestic product had grown by 1.9 percent in 2022. These sober pragmatists said several times that the German economy had “held its ground well” in the crisis.

Not much is left of doom and gloom. The signs for the coming year are also slowly but steadily improving.

Admittedly, growth of 1.9 percent would have earned everything in normal times, just not the title “good”: The state has intervened to help several times, a good half of the growth was only made up for in the Corona year 2021 and growth is not the same Prosperity, because the losses are greater there. But in times like these, when some feared an economic slump of several percentage points, “good” is perfectly appropriate.

Top jobs of the day

Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.

>> Read here: German economy will grow by 1.9 percent in 2022

Now the question may be asked why some forecasters were so far off the mark in their forecasts. Once again, it is noticeable that entrepreneurs, lobby groups and trade unions, of all people, often assessed the economic situation worse than independent bodies. As the saying goes: “The complaint is the greeting of the merchant.”

There are exceptions. Some associations have good forecasters. But it is striking how far others have gone wrong. And the question automatically arises as to whether this is a coincidence. Or whether they are not interested in formulating their own situation as dramatically as possible in order to get as much out of it as possible.

Industrial production stops are a necessary evil

Of course, part of the lawsuit is still valid. The energy-intensive industry in Germany in particular is not having an easy time at the moment. The production stops as a result of the high energy prices are painful, but not dramatic, but a necessary evil. If energy has to be saved on a large scale, it cannot work without stopping production.

>>Read here: Why fears of recession are overblown

It would only be a drama if the production stops caused supply chains in Germany to collapse. That’s not the case. Apparently, the affected buyers found a replacement abroad.

Ultimately, the question is whether the lawsuit strategy is so effective. In any case, this is not how you make yourself attractive to potential new business partners, who are currently being sought due to the move away from Russia and China.

More: Which sectors have ensured the growth of the German economy in 2022

source site-11