Why Erdogan threatens to veto again

But the euphoria of the NATO member states is already gone. When the alliance formally decides to admit Finland and Sweden to the alliance this Tuesday, the representatives of the 30 allies will sign the so-called accession protocols in the presence of the foreign ministers of Finland and Sweden. Erdogan’s risk, however, remains.

Now it turns out that the agreement signed by Sweden, Finland and Turkey is interpreted completely differently, depending on their point of view. The result: a new diplomatic dispute is looming. It is a conflict that, at worst, could thwart the defense alliance’s northern expansion. Given the threat posed by Russia, this would be a major setback for the West.

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What Erdogan announced to the public at the end of the summit sounded like a triumph across the board. Erdogan emphasized that Turkey had prevailed on every point. Sweden has promised to extradite 73 terrorists to Turkey. The country has also promised to take action against the activities of the terrorist group PKK. This affects both the financing of the organization and the recruitment of members.

“Political agreement, not legal agreement”

But that sounds very different in Stockholm and Helsinki. The governments of Sweden and Finland are now pointing out that the extradition requests must be in line with the relevant European convention, and that the written agreement does not stipulate a fixed number for extraditions.

In an interview with the Spanish newspaper El País, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said the memorandum signed in Madrid “is more of a political statement than a legal agreement”. The most important point is to strengthen cooperation. “We are ready to process information from the Turkish authorities and to cooperate on terrorism issues. However, all decisions are made according to Finnish law.”

If Finland and Sweden do not fulfill their promises in the fight against terrorism, I will hold up the ratification process for NATO membership in the Turkish parliament. Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Political observers in Turkey see this as a bad omen. The Turkish President did not sit down at the negotiating table to make concessions, it said. Any relativization could cause the accession of the two countries to burst at the last moment.

“If Finland and Sweden don’t fulfill their promises in the fight against terrorism, I will hold up the ratification process for NATO membership in the Turkish parliament,” Erdogan threatened immediately after the end of the summit.

A particularly sensitive point of the agreements are the demands on Sweden and Finland to ease the extradition requests to Turkey. Ankara has long been demanding that alleged terrorists be handed over to Turkey. According to the Turkish media, the publisher Ragip Zarakolu, who is critical of the government and who lives in Sweden, is also on the corresponding list.

In Turkey, Sweden is seen as a haven for dissidents and supporters of the PKK

Liberal Sweden is seen in Turkey as a haven for dissidents and supporters of the PKK, who are on the terror list in Turkey and throughout the EU. The organization has carried out countless terrorist attacks in Turkey since the 1980s, killing 40,000 people.

In return, Turkish security forces have waged a long war against supporters and sympathizers of the group. The PKK is hated in Turkey – both in politics and among the population. Political compromises and concessions are difficult when it comes to this issue.

This is also shown by the reactions of the Turkish opposition to last week’s agreements. It is said that Erdogan handed himself over to the West with the memorandum. “Now the PKK has another ally in NATO,” said an opposition MP, referring to Sweden. The Turkish opposition is thus putting enormous pressure on Erdogan not to compromise under any circumstances with the two accession candidates.

Before the NATO summit in Madrid – dispute over NATO membership resolved

Turkish President Erdogan (centre) shakes hands with Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde after signing the memorandum.

(Photo: dpa)

Meanwhile, the other NATO member countries are stepping up the pace to make progress with the northern expansion. After the accession protocols have been signed, the parliaments of the 30 NATO members to date must ratify the admission of the two new members. This can also take a few months because of the summer break of the parliaments, but the federal government wants to hurry in line with other states: A spokesman for the Federal Foreign Office said that the decision-making process in Germany will “go even faster than you and I usually do to consider something possible”. According to information from the Handelsblatt, the Bundestag intends to ratify the admission of Sweden and Finland before the start of the summer break this week.

USA promises protection to accession candidates

Joe Biden had already assured both countries in May that he wanted to work in the Senate for speedy ratification of accession. The US President also gave Sweden and Finland a kind of security guarantee for the transitional period. “While its applications for NATO membership are being considered, the United States will work with Finland and Sweden to remain vigilant against any threats to our common security,” Biden said.

According to political observers, whether Erdogan will ultimately go along with it depends on whether he can still sell the agreement as a success in his own country, even if it does not have an immediate effect. Time is running out for Erdogan: in a year there will be elections in Turkey. The people in the country are upset about the current economic and currency crisis. In addition, the majority of Turks consider NATO to be an instrument that does the country more harm than good.

Erdogan has already announced that he will run for president again. Now he can’t afford to make any political mistakes in the next twelve months. From the point of view of his opponents, he has already committed far too many of them. Admitting Sweden and Finland to NATO without asking for any concrete benefits in return would be another mistake from the point of view of many people in Turkey.

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