Dusseldorf The central banks are currently determining the direction of the stock markets. The more the US Federal Reserve, in particular, has increased its key interest rate, the more the share prices have fallen so far.
Because the key interest rate is a central criterion for the economy, explains Tilmann Galler, capital market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management: “Ultimately, the key interest rate is the price of money. The risks of something ‘breaking’ as interest rates rise are not insignificant.”
He has therefore analyzed how the various sectors of the stock market have historically behaved in relation to ten-year government bond yields, which reflect the interest rate hikes that have already taken place and those anticipated by the market. Put simply, his analysis shows which stocks have historically benefited from rising interest rates or suffered particularly from them. “So far the trend has been well confirmed,” says Galler, looking ahead to this year.
Energy stocks rise especially when interest rates rise
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