Berlin, Glasgow Boris Johnson may be the host, but Tina Stege is the face of the UN Climate Change Conference. The climate ambassador of the Marshall Islands warns, encourages and solicits the support of the big countries. “Governments are currently on track to miss their targets,” she warns in the crowded conference center in Glasgow. “We have to make sure that the national climate plans are aligned with the 1.5 degree target.”
After a week and a half, the final spurt at the COP26 begins. An agreement should be reached by Saturday that underpins the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement with concrete steps. At that time, the states had committed to limit global warming to below two degrees or, better still, 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times. Now they have to deliver.
However, the previous plans and announcements by the states are not sufficient. It was only on Tuesday that the environmental and development organization Germanwatch and the Newclimate Institute think tank made the large gap between aspiration and reality clear once again: No country is on the globally targeted 1.5-degree path.
Many countries have no problem with declaring themselves to be climate neutral in 2050 – that is, in the distant future. However, they find it difficult to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in the short term by 2030. It will therefore remain central that the national targets for 2030 are raised further and backed up with concrete measures, according to an interim balance sheet by the Environment Ministry at the summit.
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That is why it is now Tina Stege’s hour in Glasgow. As chairman of the so-called High Ambition Coalition, she tries to move the brakes and blockers to more speed. In the coalition, the states that see themselves as pioneers in climate protection have come together, including many small island states, but also the EU and the USA.
The Marshall Islands, Stege’s home, would be one of the first to disappear if the sea level rose further.
(Photo: Reuters)
Stege’s moral persuasiveness stems from the fact that her homeland would be one of the first places to disappear if climate change continued unchecked. The Marshall Islands, a small group of islands in the Pacific, are only two meters above sea level. “I cannot accept the failure of the COP,” says Stege. “That would mean that my country has no future.”
The UK Presidency of the Summit presented a first draft of the final declaration. This “consistently breathes the spirit of more effort”, said Jochen Flasbarth, State Secretary in the Federal Environment Ministry, but the goal is not yet there. Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson traveled to Glasgow again on Wednesday to give the negotiators one final push.
There is a dispute over these four points:
1. National climate goals: For the first time there is to be a political declaration in which the countries acknowledge that they are accelerating their efforts to protect the climate. Countries like Saudi Arabia and China are still reluctant to do this. However, the British are pushing for a decision to tighten national climate targets. Environmental organizations are also calling for climate plans to be reviewed annually and for governments to step up if their measures are inadequate.
The draft provides for improvements, especially in the current decade. The states should “review their targets by 2030 and tighten them so that they are in line with the global warming target agreed in the world climate treaty by the end of 2022,” it says.
State Secretary Flasbarth once again made it clear that the world was “facing a decade of catching up”. It is clear, however, that the small island states cannot bring about the necessary emission reductions. “It’s essentially about the G20,” that is, the 20 largest industrialized and emerging countries, he said. In the next few days it must still be possible to make it clear “who actually has to act here”.
2. Set of rules: The negotiations to conclude the rules of the Paris Agreement are generally considered to be constructive. However, there are still no standards for an exchange and crediting mode for greenhouse gas reductions from international climate protection projects. There must not be any double bookings. There are also still no regulations on how the various climate targets can be made comparable.
3. Coal phase-out: There is also a dispute over an explanation of the coal phase-out. Environmentalists are calling for a clear date, but countries that have so far relied heavily on coal are having a hard time. The Ministry of the Environment considers a formulation to accelerate the coal phase-out to be possible. Achim Steiner, head of the United Nations development organization, UNDP, demanded a clear signal that “coal is on its way into history”. “If this signal fails to materialize, it would certainly be a missed opportunity.”
4. Money: Financial aid for developing countries remains a constant controversy. The industrialized countries’ pledge to pay $ 100 billion a year in climate aid to poorer countries by 2020 is not to be achieved until 2023 and then exceeded if possible. In 2019, 80 billion flowed. “It’s embarrassing,” says Nick Mabey, head of the E3G think tank. The largest is the shortfall in the USA. That cost the industrialized countries a lot of political capital in the rest of the world and is now making an agreement more difficult.
There will also be discussions about the way in which compliance with the 100 billion target will be maintained, how things will continue after 2025 and to what extent the poorest countries in the world can be adequately helped with the massively growing damage and losses. “The next few days will require a lot of effort from all of us,” warns the British COP President Alok Sharma. “If we don’t deliver, the public will be angry.”
Despite criticism: “Glasgow has brought the world forward”
While experts agree that progress is not enough, the Glasgow meeting moved the world forward. “There is a feeling that the world economy is moving in the right direction,” says Mabey. He cites the coal phase-out as an example.
40 other countries, including Indonesia, South Africa and Nigeria, have announced that they will no longer build new coal-fired power plants. The phase-out will continue into the 2040s, but a start has been made. It is disappointing that China is continuing to build new coal-fired power plants in its own country, says Mabey.
On the other hand, China is involved in stopping the financing of fossil fuels abroad by the end of 2022, as is Germany. This is considered a great success. At first, however, Germany did not join a pact for more climate protection in the aviation industry, nor did it join an alliance leading to the end of the internal combustion engine.
There is consensus within the government that only zero-emission vehicles should be allowed by 2035, it said. However, there was no consensus on a marginal aspect of the declaration as to whether synthetic fuels obtained from renewable energies in internal combustion engines could be part of the solution.
More: “Aid for climate protection is not alms” – German UN diplomat calls on industrialized countries to act