Berlin The danger of a gas delivery stop and thus massive economic problems is increasing. The EU Commission is urging the member states to reduce gas demand through a bundle of measures in order to reduce the risk of a gas shortage in winter. Among other things, it is proposed that public buildings be heated less.
The background is the concern that Russia will not resume its gas supplies even after the end of the scheduled maintenance of the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 1 on July 21. An overview of what this means for Germany:
The question cannot be answered unequivocally. One thing is certain: Russia has not been supplying gas through Nord Stream 1 since Monday. It is unclear whether gas will flow again after the end of the maintenance work at the end of next week.
According to the Federal Network Agency, a gas supply stop would still be manageable at the moment. “For the coming weeks and the summer, Germany could do without Russian gas thanks to the precautionary measures that have already been taken,” the authority explains on its website.
It looks more difficult in the coming winter. This means that the more gas is consumed now, the more difficult the situation will be in winter. In order to guarantee the supply, the network agency already recommends taking further measures to reduce gas consumption.
In which order would companies have to reckon with a restricted supply in the event of a gas emergency?
The Federal Network Agency is currently largely holding back on the issue. The authority only says: “The decisions to be made in a situation of shortage are always decisions on a case-by-case basis, because the circumstances that then apply depend on so many parameters (including gas storage capacity, weather conditions, European requirements, savings achieved) that they cannot be foreseen.”
How does the economy assess the situation?
Employer President Rainer Dulger is very concerned about the German economy. “It looks as if Russia is severely short of gas or will not supply anything at all in the long run,” Dulger told the Süddeutsche Zeitung. “We are facing the biggest crisis the country has ever had.” A gas supply freeze poses serious problems for the German economy. This is not limited to industry, but affects everyone. “We have to be honest and say: We’re going to lose the prosperity that we’ve had for years,” said Dulger.
>>Read here: Emergency plan – The EU wants to protect these sectors in the event of a gas failure
What impact would a gas emergency have on the population?
According to the Federal Network Agency, if there is not enough gas to meet demand, such a gas shortage would initially have little or only indirect effects on the population. “Protected customers” such as household customers would be given priority, as would systems that produce district heating for household customers, the authority explains.
It is also regulated by law that gas supply companies have to guarantee the natural gas supply for these customers even in the event of supply disruptions.
Rearrange gas prioritization?
In order to protect industrial companies, would it be necessary to give priority to supplying private households in the event of a gas shortage?
The Federal Managing Director of the Federal Association of Medium-Sized Businesses, Markus Jerger, calls for a new gas prioritization. “Priority for private consumers in the event of acute bottlenecks is absolutely understandable from a socio-political point of view, but manufacturing companies should not be categorically put on the back burner,” Jerger told the Handelsblatt: “What’s the use of a warm apartment if the supply of food and everyday goods is not enough collapsed?”
From Jerger’s point of view, the situation must therefore be reassessed against the background of “the imminent extreme scenario”. “In view of the challenge facing society as a whole, particularistic thinking in templates does not help us any further.” Therefore, medium-sized companies called on all consumers to use the available resources in a solidarity and economical manner at an early stage. “In the end, however, it will probably only work if we take people on board with us.”
Is it easy to change gas prioritization?
Usually not. So far, the voices from politics have focused on appeals to the population to save energy. However, statements on this by Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (Greens) briefly caused irritation. If gas flows are interrupted for months, one might have to “think again” about the rules in the gas emergency plan, said Habeck during a visit to Vienna.
“No one should freeze,” said Habeck. But private households would have to make a contribution, otherwise there would be massive consequences for the economy as a whole. On Wednesday, a spokeswoman for Habeck emphasized that the definition of protected customers still applies, that they would continue to be supplied in the event of a gas shortage and would not be switched off.
The President of the Federal Network Agency, Klaus Müller, also gave the all-clear. “Even in the worst scenario, Germany will continue to get gas from Norway and from terminals in Belgium or Holland, soon also directly from terminals on the German coast,” he said. He considers it “not very likely” that no more gas will reach people’s homes.
Saving energy in everyday life
How can energy be saved in everyday life?
The Federal Ministry of Economics advertises with a campaign for energy saving. It deals with tips such as: “Cooking and baking on a low flame”, taking shorter showers, using water-saving shower heads or rinsing and washing in a climate-friendly manner.
What is the point of saving energy in the private sector anyway?
When in doubt, a lot. According to the Economics Ministry, private households account for 29 percent of all energy consumption in Germany. We only need 67 percent of this for heating. This is where the greatest potential for savings lies.
Experts have been pointing out the need for small-scale measures for weeks: optimizing the operation of the heating systems, insulating the heating pipes, decalcification and ventilation and installing so-called heating locks, which prevent the heating from “turning up” during ventilation.
Will the heating temperature in apartments be lowered?
It is still unclear whether this will happen across the board. Experts advise, however, to lower the temperatures at least at night. The Vonovia housing group has already announced that it will reduce the temperature to 17 degrees between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m.
This approach is also recommended by the central association of the housing industry GdW. Lowering the temperature reduces gas consumption in the building sector by up to 25 to 30 percent. Instead of maintaining 20 to 21 degrees as has been customary up to now, 18 to 19 degrees could normally be sufficient voluntarily.
>> Read here: Hot water, heating, additional costs: What can the landlord change unilaterally?
In principle, however, housing associations hope for a legal clarification of the issue, as a recent survey by the BBU Association of Berlin-Brandenburg Housing Companies among its members showed. When asked whether they would make use of the possibility of lowering the heating temperature, even if this were not officially prescribed, almost 45 percent of those surveyed answered “rather no”. 36.9 percent answer with “yes, in any case” or with “rather yes”.
The Central Association of the German Real Estate Industry (ZIA) has already called for the exclusion of warranty claims under tenancy law. “In the event that the minimum temperatures in the interior are not reached due to extreme gas bottlenecks, a warranty claim against landlords must be excluded,” said ZIA President Andreas Mattner.
Do you need contingency plans?
Yes, says Lamia Messari-Becker, Professor of Building Technology and Building Physics at the University of Siegen. “The federal, state and local governments should have emergency plans including evacuation options in the drawer,” said the civil engineer to the Handelsblatt.
This also includes preparing municipal buildings for use as a kind of “heat island” to protect people from the cold. Particular attention is also paid to supplying critical infrastructure, such as hospitals, emergency services, nursing homes, kindergartens and schools, and protecting vulnerable groups, i.e. the elderly, those in need of care, people with disabilities and children.
Rising gas prices
What gas prices should consumers expect?
According to estimates by the Federal Network Agency, the monthly advance payments for consumers of natural gas will at least triple in the coming year. “For those who are now getting their heating bills, the deductions are already doubling – and the consequences of the Ukraine war are not even taken into account,” said the president of the authority Müller, the editorial network Germany. “From 2023, gas customers will have to expect discounts to triple, at least,” he added.
>> Read here: Energy costs are particularly high in these properties
Are municipal utilities and other gas suppliers allowed to raise prices now?
No, not yet. However, under certain conditions, the Energy Security Act allows utility companies in the alarm and emergency level to have a “right to adjust prices”.
If the mechanism is activated, suppliers could pass on their current additional costs to their customers within just one week. This is to prevent them from going bankrupt. Old contracts would thus become obsolete, even with a price guarantee – and it would be expensive for customers.
Before that, however, the network agency would have to activate this clause, which has not yet happened. A surcharge for all gas consumers is also legally possible in order to reduce the burden in individual cases. “This is a political decision that you have to weigh very carefully,” said network agency boss Müller. You could support the companies with billions. The other variant would be “to announce the prices and then to help those who can no longer afford them”.
More: Gas crisis: What energy-saving measures have Handelsblatt readers taken?