Berlin One thing is already certain on this Sunday morning: the CDU and CSU will do worse than ever in their history in this federal election.
In the polls, the Union bobbed between 21 and 25 percent. At the worst times, mind you under Angela Merkel 2017, the party came to 32.9 percent. In 1957, on the other hand, it was even more than 50 percent, until 1994 at least regularly more than 40 percent, which was only achieved once in 2013. Since 2005, however, and thus during Merkel’s reign, the Union has fallen in favor of the electorate.
Even with a surprise result of 26 or 27 percent, the black bar will point down with the first extrapolation at 6 p.m. But there are other indicators that are decisive for what will happen on election evening and the days after at the CDU and CSU.
Like the SPD, the Union has to be satisfied with a result of less than 25 percent in the last election. Above all: The SPD is two or three percentage points ahead of the Union. The Union has thus missed several election goals: an election result above 30 percent, first place and the certainty that without it, no government is possible.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet will nevertheless try to forge a coalition with the FDP and the Greens, as otherwise he should only be able to resign.
However, CSU boss Markus Söder has already announced that the Union should only seek a government if it achieves first place. A union that leads a government with only 22 percent of the vote would have to give up many of its convictions in favor of the coalition partners and again pursue a policy against its will – as is often the case in the grand coalition. In addition, a number of posts and offices would go to the other coalition partners, which depresses the mood in their own ranks.
Söder would appear before the press that evening and warn that the Union was in danger. There has to be a fundamental renewal. He and his CSU fought and gave everything. Laschet can consider whether to step down the same evening or not until the next day. In the background, the majorities for a parliamentary group chairman are being explored. The CSU MPs could warm up to Laschet’s opponent Norbert Röttgen.
The Bavarian Prime Minister and CSU party leader is already looking forward to the next election in his country.
(Photo: Reuters)
Söder’s resistance to Laschet is aimed primarily at Bavaria: a weak federal government led by the Union would depress the mood in the country and weaken the Union in the federal states. So rather the opposition bank in the federal government against a red-red-green, better still: red-green-yellow federal government, polarize from there and score points at home.
Other CDU state chiefs will have similar thoughts as Söder: In Saarland, state elections are in the pipeline, as are Schleswig-Holstein, North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony, and in 2023 in Bremen and Hesse.
Also read:
In contrast to the CDU state chairman, however, Söder has to serve completely different demands: After the disastrous result in the state elections in 2018, he must absolutely succeed, specifically: achieve the absolute majority, as is expected from the CSU. If he succeeds in this, he might be the next candidate for chancellor. If he fails, his days should be numbered.
If the result is bad, he will also have to take criticism from the CSU board on Monday, because during the entire Bundestag election campaign, as a defeated chancellor candidate against Armin Laschet, he stiffened and thus reduced the Union’s chances of victory. With a clear defeat, Söder’s future is as uncertain as that of Armin Laschet.
But the presidium members and state chairmen will also come under a lot of pressure: Bernd Althusmann (Lower Saxony), Volker Bouffier (Hesse), Julia Klöckner (Rhineland-Palatinate), Thomas Strobl (Baden-Württemberg) and also the gray Eminence Wolfgang Schäuble had contrary to the opinion their party members put Laschet on the shield of the chancellor candidate – and not Söder.
Scenario 2: Head to head racing
It is likely that the SPD and Union will be in a head-to-head race and it will not be clear until late in the evening whether Olaf Scholz can claim first place for himself or Armin Laschet. If Laschet is ahead, then the Union will take a deep breath and do everything possible to form a government. And yet he is far from safe. Let us remind you of the year 2005: Chancellor candidate Angela Merkel had to answer for a very bad result.
The CDU chairwoman started the election campaign with fantastic values and at times got 49 percent of the votes in the polls, while the SPD, with Gerhard Schröder, was far behind at 28 percent. It was only a question of who would govern the Union under Merkel. But then Schröder caught up, attacked the Union and climbed steadily to 34.2 percent on the evening of the election – while Merkel landed just ahead of him at 35.2 percent despite polls of more than 40 percent shortly before the election.
Schröder caught up in 2005, but could not prevent his loss of power.
(Photo: imago / photothek)
At that time, too, the Merkel opponents, like Armin Laschet’s opponents these days, already sharpened their knives, the Prime Ministers Roland Koch (Hesse), Christian Wulff (Lower Saxony) and a few others spoke out on Sunday afternoon, around the time after Merkel to organize.
But then ARD and ZDF broadcast the “elephant round” on the evening of the election: Schröder got drunk from the unexpectedly good result as the election winner and ensured that the ranks in the Union faction closed behind Angela Merkel. She became the parliamentary group leader and thus had the necessary authority and power to negotiate coalition with Schröder on an equal footing – and to become chancellor.
Laschet will therefore also have to try to become chairman of the group. The parliamentary group chairmanship is regarded as the “preliminary stage to the Chancellery”. To do this, however, he needs the approval of Markus Söder.
He will also take part in the party chairman’s panel discussion. It is the first time since 2005 that a CSU leader and not the Bavarian top candidate has participated in the federal election. Depending on the percentage that the Union can achieve, Söder will support or harm Laschet.
Scenario 3: surprise victory
The polls for the bourgeois camp, consisting of the Union and FDP, are surprisingly low. What if pollers got it wrong and the Union is clearly ahead of the SPD? It would be a triumph for Chancellor candidate Laschet like 2017 in North Rhine-Westphalia, where he won the race in the last few meters and has since governed with a majority of one vote with the liberals.
Late protection: Chancellor and candidate two days before the Bundestag election in Munich.
(Photo: AP)
Laschet would stand on the stage in the foyer of the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus, beaming with relief, and let himself be celebrated – and in the next moment leave no doubt that he will form a government and CSU boss Söder has to take his place.
He would become parliamentary group chairman and negotiator for the exploratory talks and coalition negotiations and later become chancellor – presumably of the first Jamaica coalition with his friends Christian Lindner (FDP) and Cem Özdemir (Greens).
He would also have the chairman of the group. The current chairman Ralph Brinkhaus, Health Minister Jens Spahn and the economic expert Friedrich Merz are in discussion.
More: Bund, Berlin, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: Election Sunday will be a turning point – for the state and the SPD