Istanbul Kemal Kilicdaroglu likes to present himself as anti-Erdogan. The challenger to the Turkish head of state in the presidential elections in Turkey on Sunday wants to strengthen civil liberties in the country, change the constitution and put monetary policy on an orderly track. In doing so, he has raised great hopes of a change of government in Europe and the USA.
“It’s no secret that Western governments and observers are hoping for a leadership change in Ankara to stabilize, if not ‘reset’, ties with an important but difficult ally,” said Ian Lesser, vice president of the German Marshall Fund. “Ankara’s relations with transatlantic partners, including the EU and NATO, have been deeply troubling in recent years.”
Kilicdaroglu is not only seen by many in his own country as a beacon of hope for a different policy. But in foreign policy, where there have been major points of contention between the West and the country on the Bosphorus, the 74-year-old Kilicdaroglu wants to make fewer changes than first appears.
For example, in the Turkish position on the war in Ukraine. At the headquarters of Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP), many agree that Ankara should not back Ukraine more strongly, but should instead continue to adopt a special position towards Russia.
Ankara has condemned the Russian attack but does not join Western sanctions against Russia. The CHP says it should stay that way. And this despite the fact that the EU has clearly criticized this course.
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Kilicdaroglu is the top candidate for an opposition alliance of six parties in the election against incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He promises the Turkish people not only a return to the parliamentary system of government and a new economic policy, but also closer ties with the EU.
The incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan often sharply lashed out at the West.
(Photo: AP)
The opposition candidate has, for example, promised media coverage that he will be able to travel to the European Union without a visa within three months of taking office. EU bureaucrats consider this unattainable for technical reasons alone.
The EU accession negotiations are practically frozen. According to an internal measurement by the EU Commission, which indicates the extent to which an accession candidate overlaps with EU foreign policy, Ankara’s and Brussels’ foreign policies now only match by seven percent.
There is potential for conflict, among other things, with the EU-Turkey refugee agreement of 2016. Kilicdaroglu accused the EU of “bribery”, referring to payments of up to nine billion euros to Turkey to prevent these refugees from traveling on to the EU.
The EU had signed a controversial refugee deal with Turkey.
(Photo: AP)
Kilicdaroglu believes the deal needs to be reassessed and Turkey cannot continue to act as a “buffer zone” for “climate refugees,” as he explained in a Twitter video.
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Kilicdaroglu’s planned migration policy could further strain European-Turkish relations. In March he promised to send Syrian refugees back to their homes within two years. In the Tagesthemen interview, Kilicdaroglu emphasized that he wanted to negotiate guarantees with the “legitimate government of Syria” – meaning the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad – so that the four million Syrian refugees could return. When asked whether opposition Syrian refugees in particular would then be more likely to flee towards the EU, he dodged.
In a television interview with a Turkish television station, he became more explicit. There he announced that he wanted to use European funds to prepare an infrastructure in Syria for the return of millions of people. If the EU does not provide these funds, he will not keep the Syrians in Turkey. “I’m sorry, I’ll open the doors. They can go wherever they want.”
In relation to EU member Greece, there are at least no signs of rapid rapprochement, even after a change of power in Ankara: Last year, Kilicdaroglu even threatened the neighboring country with armed intervention. In this context, he also attacked the United States in a video. The United States had “filled” Greece with military bases.
This is not the only hostility against the United States: last year he declared that his party would even support the Erdogan government if it wanted to close all American military installations in Turkey. “We are as much against foreign soldiers in our country as we are against neoliberalism. We are ready to do whatever is necessary,” Kilicdaroglu said at the time.
Kilicdaroglu has to fight for relations with the West in the opposition alliance
In Kilicdaroglu’s alliance of six there are two parties founded by ex-members of Erdogan’s AKP, as well as a nationalist and an Islamist party, which are not necessarily Western-oriented. And so there is often dissent when it comes to the planned foreign policy.
Kilicdaroglu has frequently indicated that his foreign policy is not exclusively Western-oriented. “It would not be right to limit Turkey’s foreign policy to a pro-east or pro-west definition,” he said in an interview with the Nikkei Asia newspaper shortly before the election.
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One of the biggest points of contention between western countries and Turkey is that Ankara has so far refused to give its consent to Sweden joining NATO. Whether that would change under Kilicdaroglu is not certain.
NATO wants to expand the alliance, but needs Turkey’s approval to do so.
(Photo: IMAGO/TT)
The western defense alliance hopes to include Sweden by the next NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11, 2023. In addition to Turkey, Hungary would also have to agree by then. But even if the government in Budapest gives the green light, the period would be ambitious.
The Turkish parliament must ratify the accession of a new alliance member. Even if Kilicdaroglu wins the presidential election, he must have a majority in the National Assembly for this step.
Even if his coalition of six were to get over 50 percent, there’s no guarantee that some of his ranks would call for anti-terror laws to be changed. Parliament would also have to make this decision within two weeks of the government reshuffle, before the summer vacation and parliament closes.
And so the presidential candidate Kilicdaroglu is already indicating that he does not want to commit himself exactly. In an interview with the Tagesthemen, he only speaks of “positive steps” on the Swedish side to address Turkish sensitivities in the fight against terrorism.
Kilicdaroglu’s CHP does not want to commit itself to a withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria either. “We will not withdraw from Syria immediately,” quoted the online medium Middle East Eye as a member of the CHP party presidium. Turkey has invaded Syria three times since 2016 under Erdogan. “Our basic priority would be core national security issues, such as the terrorist threat emanating from Syria and Iraq,” the media quoted an unnamed CHP member as saying.
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