Frankfurt Regardless of how the general election will end in a few days, one thing is already certain: The issue of climate protection will determine politics in the coming years. This has consequences for passengers. If you want to get on an airplane in the future, you should be prepared for a few changes. The most important: travel will become more expensive.
For months, various ideas have been circulating in politics to make air traffic climate-neutral. Not every proposal makes sense or can be implemented – such as the ban on short-haul flights.
“Such a ban would be a legal interference in the business model of an airline, for example. For constitutional reasons, it has to be proportionate, “says Gernot-Rüdiger Engel, a lawyer specializing in energy law at Luther’s law firm:” The question is whether that is the case in view of the relatively low share of aviation in emissions. “
But other ideas such as a kerosene or CO2 tax will come, as well as refueling with the more expensive synthetic fuel. In some cases, this means considerable additional burdens for the industry. These are passed on to the customers as far as possible – in various ways.
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Ticket prices are likely to rise in general. “Flying will become more expensive, but environmental protection costs money,” says Gerald Wissel from the aviation consultancy Airborne Consulting in Hamburg.
The airlines will also start to separate the services related to the actual transport from the ticket and to charge extra money for them. Passengers are already familiar with this from low-cost airlines.
The business models of the established network providers will adapt to this system. “The airlines will split up the product more than before and charge extra money for additional services, the so-called unbundling,” predicts Wissel.
Synthetic fuel is expensive
It is difficult to estimate how strong the price increase will be. But the additional costs can be considerable. At Lufthansa, passengers can already voluntarily pay the additional costs for the synthetic fuel SAF. The group then uses the money to buy SAF. For an intercontinental flight from Europe to the USA alone, up to an additional 500 euros are due – each way.
Even if the prices for SAF will fall, the more of it can be produced – refueling the jets will in any case become more expensive. The EU Commission wants to set quotas for how much SAF should be added when refueling in the future.
In the eyes of energy expert Engel von Luther, this is also correct – at least in combination with another instrument: “A SAF admixture is particularly effective when there is a CO2 tax,” he says. SAF and CO2 tax are mutually corresponding tubes. But at SAF, the sustainability criteria also have to be complied with. “The admixture may only be made with fuel that comes from sustainable sources.”
Airline representatives such as Lufthansa boss Carsten Spohr are in favor of an SAF quota, but at the same time warn that airlines from the Persian Gulf or Turkey would gain competitive advantages. Depending on the regulation, they would only have to meet the quota for the flights to their hubs, but not for the connecting flights. That would divert traffic from the EU at the expense of the climate.
Lufthansa and BASF have developed what is known as a shark skin for the wings. Ideas like these help a little to reduce consumption, but are not enough for climate neutrality.
(Photo: dpa)
But advisor Wissel thinks that this will be controllable and manageable. “Of course, the European airlines have additional costs as a result. But we will also have growth and increasingly efficient aircraft. And the price sensitivity of the customers is not as high as one always assumes. ”He believes that a general mandatory refueling regardless of the flight route is superfluous.
In addition to the SAF quota, taxes are also being discussed that are based on the emissions caused and that would also drive up costs. “I think a lot of a kerosene tax, but a CO2 tax is even better,” says Wissel. That is the most direct way of pricing the emissions. In aviation, however, this only makes sense if the airlines also have the option of voluntarily refueling a higher proportion of synthetic fuel than the compulsory proportion in order to reduce the tax burden.
The purchase of emission rights, which is already mandatory, is likely to become more expensive for European airlines. The EU wants to reduce the supply. Nevertheless, Engel thinks the system makes sense, at least temporarily: “This money will flow back to the company, into innovation, into modernization and now even into a social fund to facilitate the transformation process.”
Both experts, on the other hand, are critical of the self-commitment of the global aviation industry to grow CO2-neutrally in the future, known as Corsia. “Corsia has a good side. It is the first worldwide regulation for the topic of climate protection in one sector – namely aviation. We have to build on that, ”says Engel.
Compensation has no future
But it is a pure compensation model, even if the specifications are strict. In addition, it is very bureaucratic and it has been seen in the past that there can be fraud with such systems.
In general, Engel and Wissel doubt that it will be possible for a long time to buy a few euros off the emissions as a passenger. The topic of compensation has no future. A tree that binds CO2 releases it again at some point, either when it is burned or rots, says Engel: “To save the planet, we need a physical green zero, not a balance sheet one.”
In the opinion of the two experts, there is only one way to get there quickly without making the plane ticket unaffordable: a mixture of direct CO2 tax and state subsidies for synthetic fuel. In the end, everyone would accept the associated additional costs, including professional frequent flyers, says Engel: “The business customers will be grateful as a result. Because you don’t have to have a guilty conscience anymore. I believe there will be a need for sustainable flights. “
More: By air taxi to Bielefeld – electric planes enable regional airports to make a comeback.