Good morning dear readers,
It has been a weekend of threats that once again underlines the tense situation in the international community. In the end, as always, everything is connected to everything else. But first, it is worth taking a look at the individual verbal attacks:
- The National People’s Congress is currently taking place in China, the gathering of what is probably the largest sham parliament in the world. The gigantic assembly meets once a year and has hardly any political significance. And yet it is worth taking a look at the spectacle in Beijing, because China’s most important destinations for the coming year will be announced there. The Chinese leadership announced that it would increase its defense spending by 7.2 percent in order to strengthen its “combat readiness”. Words that might sound like an unmistakable threat to western ears. Above all against the background of the smoldering Taiwan conflict and the increasing tensions with the USA.
- In the USA itself, another man made a threat that could have far-reaching consequences if implemented. Ex-President Donald Trump would like to have his presidency back and outlined at the Conservative Political Action Conference what he plans to do in this case. He threatened an “immediate end” to American aid to Ukraine and instead announced that he would use the money to complete his political evergreen, the wall on the Mexican border.
- And another ex-president spoke up. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made it clear that if the armaments group Rheinmetall actually wanted to build a tank factory in Ukraine, as announced, Russia would not shy away from attacking the plant. “If the Fritzen decide to actually build there (…), then we’ll be waiting eagerly,” wrote Medvedev on Telegram. The fact that he falls back into the jargon of the Second World War and calls Germans “Fritzen” does not bode well.
Conclusion: The rhetorical rearma around the world is not a good sign for Europe. If, in times of accelerated bloc formation, the most important strategic partner, the USA, were to be lost as a result of Donald Trump being re-elected, it would become geopolitically pitch-dark for the Europeans. But other countries are also paying a high price for the current development – both Russia and China. This is what Nicole Bastian, head of the Handelsblatt foreign office, is analyzing.
In the case of another large location, there is little hope of relaxation. It’s not about arms spending and nuclear weapons, but about forest fires and floods. The Federal Ministry of Economics has commissioned a study to quantify the imminent damage caused by the climate crisis. The bottom line is: it could cost us up to 900 billion euros by 2050.
A figure that doesn’t seem so insanely high when you consider that the effects of the climate catastrophe have already caused damage worth 145 billion euros in this country since the turn of the millennium.
According to the study, impending extreme weather conditions will primarily endanger buildings such as houses, bridges or roads – they could cost up to 470 billion euros. The economist Hubertus Bardt from the German Economic Institute sees this horror price tag as a call for action on two fronts. “We have to help the global climate with climate protection, with adaptation measures we can significantly reduce the costs of climate change,” he says. Both are likely to be expensive, but in view of these gloomy forecasts, they will ultimately be worth it.
(Photo: Imago [M])
Our finance department for the German share index is also daring to take a look into the future. In order not to have to look into the crystal ball, the colleagues have analyzed the price development of the German stock exchange barometer since the first calculation in 1988 and drawn conclusions for the current year.
If a look at the history of the stock market does reveal a trend, it is as follows: after strong January and February, prices continue to rise before a correction occurs in the middle of the year. This is followed by a year-end rally in the final quarter. Read our detailed analysis to find out how investors should behave in order to benefit from this forecast.
(Photo: IMAGO/photothek)
Sometimes, when there is trouble in an extended family, it is worth taking a short vacation together so that everyone can talk openly. The Federal Chancellor, who invited his members of the government to a joint trip to Meseberg in Brandenburg, was obviously reminded of this. The annual closed meeting of the federal cabinet still takes place there today. There is a lot to talk about, for example between the brawlers Robert Habeck (Greens) and Christian Lindner (FDP).
The two ministers are at odds on so many issues that they themselves have probably lost track of what they are actually arguing about. However, Olaf Scholz, the head of the Ampel family, doesn’t like it at all – he would rather discuss the really big issues than get lost in the small details of his two ministers.
But even the chancellor cannot completely escape the personal bickering in his cabinet and turns out to be a surprising supporter. Because although he is likely to be politically closer to the Greens, in reality Scholz usually supports his liberal finance minister. My colleagues from the Berlin office wrote down what is behind this unexpected alliance.
From the metaphorical family crisis to a real one at the end. I really did my best to bring you some good news at the end of this somewhat apocalyptic morning briefing. I found them, of course, with the British royals: Prince Harry and Duchess Meghan are officially at the coronation of King Charles III. invited.
I hope this has satisfied your need for good news as well as royal news for now.
I wish you a day full of more good news.
It greets you cordially
Her
Teresa Stiens
Editor of the Handelsblatt
