The world seems to have strayed from the course: The effects of man-made climate change are enormous and are already bringing numerous regions to the brink of catastrophe. Extreme weather events like the ones we experienced around the globe in summer threaten to become normal and do not bode well for the future.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already sounded the alarm that the global average temperature could rise by more than 1.5 degrees before 2030. The Paris climate target, agreed by around 200 nations in 2015, would be history in less than eight years. The promise of around 200 countries to save the world from collapse would then be void.
The positive news: We can, still, turn things around and change a lot. But we have to act now. Declarations of intent and inflationary surpassing of targets without appropriate measures are no longer sufficient. Anyone who promises climate neutrality for 2050 has to say today what they want to have achieved in one, five and ten years.
Whether Glasgow really marks the beginning of the decade of implementation can only be finally judged in four days, when the world climate summit comes to an end. However, it seems that the hopes placed in the COP26 summit will no longer be fulfilled. Nonetheless, we should take with us from Glasgow a commitment to achieve more than can be described by declarations alone.
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The IPCC report made it clear that we must act now. It’s not just about introducing new technologies. It’s not just about saving a little energy, either. It is about fundamentally changing our approach to using energy in an environmentally friendly and climate-friendly manner. This affects everyone, whether politicians, companies or citizens. Everyone is needed here on deck.
The coal exit is inevitable
At the top of the to-do list is getting out of coal. A good 70 percent of global CO2 emissions from electricity generation are caused by coal-fired power plants. According to the London think tank E3G, the number of new coal-fired power plants planned worldwide has fallen by two thirds since the UN climate summit in Paris in 2015, but many influential countries around the world are still relying on coal.
No question about it: the exit will cost money and be an international effort. The richer countries will have to help the poorer countries in this, in accordance with the Paris Accords. But it is definitely a sensible investment in the future.
In Germany, for example, the last coal-fired power plant should go offline on schedule in 2038. However, it currently seems relatively likely that the new coalition will agree to a faster exit. It would be desirable.
No technological taboos
The United Kingdom shows that a faster exit from coal is possible. Just in time for the world climate summit in Glasgow, the share of coal has fallen to an all-time low, fossil fuels still make up almost two percent of the electricity mix – ten years ago it was around 40 percent. Boris Johnson and his confederation of states want to have completely phased out coal-fired power generation in just three years.
Such measures are having an effect; over the past 30 years, UK electricity production emissions have fallen by almost two thirds. The kingdom achieved this not only through the increased use of renewable energies (and nuclear power), but also through the use of natural gas. Environmental groups criticize the use of the fuel, but the fact is that natural gas can help to reduce CO2 emissions immediately.
Renewable energies are of course preferable. But the available quantities are currently far from sufficient to meet the world’s electricity needs. If gas helps us build a bridge by reducing CO2 emissions by a good two thirds compared to coal and at the same time guaranteeing security of supply, then we should use the bridge.
Will gas still be the right approach 25 years from now? Probably not. But we should finally stop talking about long-term goals and act immediately.
State financial equalization on a global level
It will also be important for the success of Glasgow whether the industrialized nations keep their promise to support the energy transformation in the poorer countries with an annual amount of 100 billion dollars. It was decided for the first time at the World Climate Conference in Copenhagen in 2009, and the money should have been flowing since 2020. But not enough has happened, expert estimates assume that the target of 100 billion dollars a year will only be reached in two years.
The poorer countries urgently need support, not just when it comes to phasing out coal. The effects of climate change are unevenly distributed, with developing countries and the southern hemisphere in particular being hit hardest. This must be taken into account.
It was not only affirmed in the Paris Agreement, but it is also the moral obligation of the industrialized countries, which have built up their prosperity over decades at the expense of the environment and thus at the expense of the poorer countries.
It takes a decade of action
And finally, if we are serious, we cannot avoid the consistent introduction of CO2 pricing. Without appropriate incentives, behavior will not change, either in individual countries or in industry. How high the price per tonne has to be for it to have an effect can vary depending on the sector.
There are already enough studies and expert opinions on this. It is important, however, that there is a common, fair price system in as many regions as possible, which takes international competition into account and prevents social burdens – and thus the division of society – through equalization mechanisms.
We should not accept falling short of the original claim. Regardless of what the delegates decide in Glasgow, in the end it will be up to each of us to see whether we can get back on track and turn things around. Every politician, every company and in the end every consumer has a duty.
We need a social consensus that change is necessary and positive and that sustainability has value. We are already in the middle of the storm. And that means: all men and all women on deck.
More: Climate neutrality of companies: “We accept the challenge”