Volkswagen will start autonomously in Hamburg in 2025

By 2030 at the latest, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles will increase speed and serve even more locations. “Then we will see strong expansion,” expects Intra. Global sales in the billions can be expected with new mobility services.

Developing powerful software is the biggest challenge for companies like Volkswagen that want to profit from this growing business in the years to come. VWN does not do this alone. The Hanover-based Volkswagen subsidiary is working together with Argo AI on the development of so-called SDS systems (“Self-Driving Systems”). Argo AI is an American joint venture between the VW Group and Ford that specializes in programming autonomous vehicles.

Road network is mapped

Electric minibuses from Volkswagen are currently on the road in both Hamburg and Munich. During their journeys, the entire road network of the cities will be mapped and digitized so that in a few years the robo-taxis will actually be able to drive independently.

After Hamburg, no further location has been determined. “But it is not unlikely that Munich could follow as number two, since we are currently already doing our test drives here,” adds VWN boss Intra.

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The robot taxis from Volkswagen are said to be on the move at the autonomous “Level 4”. First there will be a safety driver, later it will be possible without human support. However, at this level of autonomy, the vehicles can only operate in previously clearly defined regions.

In the case of the VWN minibuses, this will be the urban area of ​​Hamburg, for which the necessary map data is now being collected. “Level 5” is the highest level of autonomous driving; at this level there are no more regional restrictions.

It is no coincidence that Hamburg is to become the first commercial area of ​​application for the VW Group. The minibuses of the Volkswagen subsidiary Moia have been on the road in the Hanseatic city for several years. These shared taxis fill a gap between local public transport and classic taxis. The Moia buses transport several passengers at the same time, but always travel on changing routes that are planned according to the wishes of the passengers.

So Volkswagen is already gaining experience as the operator of a new mobility service. Around 1,000 Moia vehicles – VWN minibuses – are on the streets of Hamburg every day. VWN can use Moia as a basis to start the first commercial use of the new robotaxis. The SDS system, which the Hanoverians are currently working on with Argo AI, would then replace the Moia drivers from 2025 onwards.

Cooperation with Uber and Lyft conceivable

The close cooperation with a group company like Moia makes the first test run in a city like Hamburg comparatively easy for VWN. Later, the Volkswagen subsidiary also wants to sell its fully developed SDS systems to external customers.

This could be operators of local public transport, for example, but also companies that are more involved in private transport. “In the USA, for example, we could of course imagine working with companies like Uber and Lyft,” emphasizes Intra.

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Buyers of a finished SDS system from Volkswagen can save a lot of money in the future because they no longer have to pay drivers. This is where VWN boss Intra sees the greatest foreseeable economic benefit. A taxi company currently comes to about 2.50 euros per kilometer driven, in public transport it is about 1.50 euros. Intra believes that he will be able to undercut the taxi with his autonomous vehicle shortly after 2025. “We should reach the public transport level in the next decade,” he says.

Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles is also working on so-called “Special Purpose Vehicles” (SPVs). These are vehicles that are basically planned and developed without a driver’s seat and steering wheel. In a few years, such vehicles could be used in urban delivery traffic, for example by parcel services. SPV models can carry more cargo because there is no longer room for a driver.

However, not all vehicle manufacturers are convinced that drivers will disappear completely from vans everywhere. “You don’t have to go up to the highest autonomous level,” says Hans Schep, European commercial vehicle boss of the US group Ford. It is quite conceivable that transport companies only partially do without a driver. Direct human contact, for example when handing over goods, will continue to offer advantages in the future.

Autonomous systems must be cheaper than the driver

Nevertheless, Volkswagen could be right in its assessment that many transport companies will do without the driver in order to reduce costs. Approximately 70,000 to 80,000 euros must be estimated annually for a driver (salary plus social security contributions).

“We have to be cheaper than three drivers a day, because we can drive autonomously around the clock – in three shifts, so to speak,” says VWN boss Intra, describing the economic challenge for his company. In addition, there is the basic social acceptance of autonomous driving, which is still met with greater skepticism. “That’s why we also have to prove that what we offer is better and safer than human drivers.” Intra is convinced that the Volkswagen will succeed. The group started development at an early stage.

Stefan Bratzel, Professor at the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) at the Bergisch Gladbach University of Applied Sciences, agrees with the Robotaxi developers at Volkswagen on one point: “In principle, it is technically possible to develop such autonomous vehicles. New mobility services promise sales in the billions.” However, it will probably be another ten years before perfectly usable systems are available.

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The university lecturer expects that not many companies will establish themselves in this new business area. “In the end, there will probably only be three or four systems,” he adds. Volkswagen has to assert itself against strong competitors such as Waymo, Cruise (both in the USA) and Baidu (China). The car professor is far from certain that Volkswagen will ultimately assert itself.

Complete autonomy for private cars is still too expensive

After all, the Wolfsburg automaker has redoubled its efforts. Because the Volkswagen Group is not only working on autonomous driving for commercial vehicles. The Group’s own software unit, Cariad, has also entered the development work together with the major car brands VW, Audi and Porsche.

Unlike commercial vehicles, passenger cars are not about immediately developing a perfect autonomous system within a few years. Rather, the engineers want to gradually develop the technology further in an evolutionary manner across the various autonomous levels. To do this, the existing driver assistance systems have to keep getting better; In a few years, this can lead to perfect autonomous driving at level 4 or 5.

For cars and their mostly private buyers, the cost of a fully autonomous system would still be far too high today. For companies, on the other hand, spending on level 4 or 5 is worthwhile because they can do without the driver.

At the end of the technical development process in about a decade, the engineering teams from VWN and the major car brands in the group could possibly meet again because they ended up developing similar products, just in different ways. “Everything has to grow together again – ultimately there should only be one system in the group,” predicts VWN boss Intra.

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