Nicolás Maduro has been declared president for a controversial third term in Venezuela, despite widespread claims of electoral fraud and diminishing legitimacy. The regime’s failure to disclose voting results raises suspicions, with independent observers suggesting opposition candidate Edmundo González actually won. Calls for stricter international sanctions against Maduro are growing, as support for him wanes among military ranks and leftist allies in Latin America. Upcoming elections could further challenge his grip on power, highlighting the need for robust global support for Venezuelan democracy.
Maduro’s Controversial Third Term
Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan autocrat, was officially declared president for a third term on Friday in Caracas, despite losing significant legitimacy among a large segment of the population. Maduro claims he secured victory against opposition candidate Edmundo González, with a reported 52 to 43 percent of the votes last July.
However, the regime has yet to release any interim results from polling stations or electoral districts. The opposition, along with accredited election observers, has gathered data from over 80 percent of ballot boxes. Independent observers and media analyses suggest that González likely won the election with approximately 67 to 30 percent of the votes.
Need for Stricter Sanctions
Western democratic governments must take decisive action instead of remaining passive. A significant tightening of sanctions is essential to exert further pressure on the beleaguered dictator. Contrary to the belief that sanctions are ineffective in Venezuela, Maduro is acutely aware of their impact. In November, he enacted a law imposing a minimum 25-year prison sentence for supporters of such sanctions.
President Biden has inadvertently aided Maduro by easing the stringent sanctions previously imposed by Donald Trump, following a broken promise from the autocrat to conduct fair elections. Companies like Chevron still hold special permits from the U.S. government to operate in Venezuela, which should be rescinded. Expanding personal sanctions on Maduro’s extended leadership is crucial. The EU must align with these measures to prevent regime beneficiaries from escaping to Europe, as has occurred in the past.
The loyalty of the security forces, which has traditionally upheld Maduro’s regime, is now in question. Over the last twelve years, this allegiance has remained steadfast, with many high-ranking military and police officials involved in criminal activities, making them reluctant to oppose Maduro. Additionally, the autocrat relies on a Cuban intelligence team to identify and silence dissenters.
However, this loyalty is not guaranteed indefinitely. The upcoming presidential election in July 2024 and recent events have weakened Maduro’s position. For the first time, there exists an opposition candidate who has the backing of a significant majority of Venezuelans. The electoral fraud perpetrated by Maduro is apparent to the populace, severely undermining his legitimacy as president.
In Latin America, Maduro has also lost support from influential leftist governments. Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico have refused to acknowledge his electoral victory due to the lack of substantiated results.
With Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, a harsher U.S. approach towards Maduro is anticipated. Both Marco Rubio, the new Secretary of State from a Cuban exile family, and national security advisor Mike Waltz are known advocates for a strong stance on Venezuela.
Support for Maduro is also waning among rank-and-file soldiers and junior officers. Opposition-collected election data indicates low support for Maduro even in military-heavy districts. Currently, about 10 percent of the roughly 1,800 political prisoners are from the armed forces. Should regular members of the security forces disassociate from Maduro, the loyalty of their leaders would no longer serve to support the regime.
Furthermore, the fall of Assad in Syria serves as a poignant reminder for soldiers and police that even seemingly secure dictators can be ousted unexpectedly. The roles of Russia and Iran as key supporters of the Maduro regime raise questions about their willingness to intervene on Maduro’s behalf. In these circumstances, security personnel may reconsider their actions against their own people at Maduro’s behest.
Democrats in Venezuela have expressed frustration at the West’s tepid response to Maduro’s electoral abuses. Now is the critical moment for Western nations to robustly support the Venezuelan people’s quest for freedom.