Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Donald Trump on his electoral victory, recalling a significant prior meeting and expressing concerns about future U.S. support amidst fears of abandonment in the conflict with Russia. With uncertainty surrounding Trump’s approach, Kyiv is preparing for potential shifts in U.S. policy, balancing relationships with Republicans and Democrats. As optimism wanes, Ukrainians recognize the critical nature of American support while grappling with the implications of Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy on their national security.
Ukrainian President’s Reaction to Trump’s Victory
On Wednesday, the Ukrainian president wasted no time in extending his congratulations to Donald Trump following his “remarkable electoral victory.” In a post on X, Volodymyr Zelensky reminisced about a significant meeting from September and echoed Trump’s assertion that enduring peace can only be achieved through strength. He emphasized that Ukraine, recognized as one of Europe’s key military powers, is capable of ensuring long-term peace and security within the transatlantic alliance, provided that it has the backing of its allies.
However, Zelensky’s comments hint at deeper concerns: uncertainty looms over whether Ukraine can rely on continued support from Washington under a Trump administration. An observer recently pointed out that this election holds critical implications for Kyiv, leading many Ukrainians to fear potential abandonment in their ongoing defense against Russia.
The Republicans’ Approach to Ukraine
In recent weeks, official sources have remained tight-lipped, refraining from showing favoritism towards Trump or Kamala Harris, even in private discussions. Dmytro Kuleba, the recently ousted Foreign Minister, has taken a cautious stance, stating, “Any form of demonization or idealization would be a grave error.” Ukraine’s approach must adapt to work effectively with any new president.
Comments made by Trump and his chosen vice president, J.D. Vance, during the campaign do not inspire much optimism in Kyiv. Vance famously stated, “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine,” following Russia’s invasion in 2022. Trump has expressed that Ukrainians should be willing to “give up a little” to prevent the invasion, indicating that his priority lies in swiftly ending the war, regardless of the implications for Ukraine’s sovereignty. He is acutely aware of the discontent among his supporters regarding the $64 billion military aid package directed towards Kyiv since 2022.
While Trump has claimed he could resolve the ongoing conflict within 24 hours, his proposals remain vague and suggest that Ukraine would need to make significant concessions. Recent leaks indicate that a future Republican administration might not halt military assistance immediately but would condition it on Ukraine’s willingness to engage in peace talks with Moscow.
Vance proposes a temporary cessation of hostilities along current front lines and the establishment of demilitarized zones. He opposes Ukraine’s NATO membership, suggesting that security guarantees should come from European nations. However, the feasibility of this approach without American support is likely understood by Vance, and for many Ukrainians, it would resemble capitulation.
It remains uncertain how Trump plans to compel Russia to negotiate, especially with an apparent reduction of American involvement. As Putin makes advances in Donbas, he is poised to exploit any potential divisions within the West, particularly as war fatigue sets in. The Kremlin has already stated that a swift conclusion to the conflict is unattainable.
Unpredictability and Ukraine’s Future
For Ukrainians, a presidency under Harris would have likely meant a continuation of Biden’s policies, which brings only limited enthusiasm. Some individuals in Kyiv even speculate that Trump’s unpredictable nature might inadvertently benefit Ukraine. Relations between the U.S. and Ukraine have been strained by Biden’s hesitance to provide long-range weaponry and support for NATO membership, leading some to hope that Trump could take a more aggressive stance.
There’s a belief among optimists that the new American president could apply increased economic pressure on Russia and boost military support for Ukraine if Putin refuses dialogue. They argue that Trump’s pride and his party’s realpolitik would prevent him from losing Ukraine. Military insiders in Kyiv recall that Trump was the first to authorize lethal aid to Ukraine back in 2017.
However, Trump has a complicated history with Ukraine, having previously leveraged military aid to pressure Zelensky into investigating Biden’s son. Following the rise of pro-Russian factions within the Republican Party, Trump’s stance towards Ukraine has hardened. His earlier actions delayed crucial arms deliveries at the start of 2024, a setback that Russia continues to exploit today.
Given this context, Kyiv has begun to strategically prepare for a potential Trump presidency. Kuleba acknowledges that strengthening ties with the Republican Party is essential while maintaining existing relationships with Democrats. Zelensky actively pursued a meeting with Trump during his recent visit to the U.S., highlighting the economic advantages of American involvement, including opportunities for business collaborations in rare metals. Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko notes that discussions about military aid could be tied to financial agreements.
Ultimately, Ukraine’s fundamental challenge remains its significant reliance on American support. While Trump may not single-handedly dictate the future, the involvement of other Western nations in sanctions and funding remains critical. If Republicans secure a majority in both the Senate and House, Trump would enjoy considerable freedom in domestic policy, with no European or Asian nation being able to match the U.S. military might.
Kuleba believes that the best strategy for Ukraine is to bolster its own defenses. Discussions fueled by Zelensky regarding acquiring nuclear capabilities seem far-fetched, while enhancing the domestic arms industry through international partnerships appears more realistic. Although progress is being made, it is insufficient to meet the extensive demands of an ongoing war.
Despite a prevailing sense of cautious optimism, Ukrainians are increasingly aware that their future could become significantly more precarious with Trump’s election. A creeping sense of pessimism has been permeating society for months, with one government advisor stating, “I see no positive factors on the horizon.” As the first snow falls outside, it does little to alleviate the somber mood in Kyiv.