Brussels From Kyiv’s point of view, the matter is clear: Because Ukraine oriented itself towards the EU, it was attacked by Russia. That is why official recognition as a candidate for EU membership is the least that is expected from Brussels’ enlargement policy.
“If Ukraine is not granted candidate status, it will mean the death of our hope. It will kill the hopes of the Ukrainian people,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said at a joint press conference with Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck last Thursday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed the application to join the EU days after the Russian invasion with live streaming. Shortly before, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had raised hopes in Kyiv when she said in an interview with Euronews about Ukraine’s EU prospects: “You are one of us and we want you in.”
In June, the EU Commission intends to present a recommendation as to whether Ukraine should be granted candidate status. In record time: Normally, an application is reviewed for at least a year and a half, sometimes even left in a desk drawer for years. But the Commission staff responsible worked overtime without end. In Brussels it is now assumed that the Commission’s answer will be positive.
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But basically the Commission has nothing decisive to say. Whether a country becomes a member of the EU – or even has the prospect of becoming one – is decided solely by the member states, and unanimously. And the request from Kyiv puts the European capitals in an awkward position in several respects. Can you offend a country at war? Not really.
An EU-close Ukraine is in Europe’s interest
No EU country wants to send a negative signal to Kyiv. A refusal would be a diplomatic affront. There are fears for the morale of the Ukrainian soldiers and for strained relationships in the future. An EU-close Ukraine is also in Europe’s interest. And a defeated Ukraine would be fatal for the European security structure.
Nevertheless, at an informal summit in March, the majority of member states took a stance against a fast-track procedure. Because Ukraine does not meet the accession criteria – that was the case even before the war.
If a country wants to become a member, it must incorporate EU legislation into national law. It must prove that it is a stable democracy with a functioning rule of law. And it must be able to compete with the EU internal market. The war is currently reducing the country to rubble and has to be rebuilt. Accession negotiations are not possible in this way.
There are also fears that Ukraine’s rapid EU integration will snub the countries of the Western Balkans. They were assured at the EU-Western Balkans summit in Thessaloniki in 2003 that they could be members of the EU. Only Croatia has since joined. Negotiations have been ongoing with Montenegro and Serbia since 2012 and 2014 respectively. Accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia have been scheduled to begin for years, but the blockade of individual EU countries keeps failing.
Bosnia-Herzegovina’s application has been in the drawer for six years
Bosnia-Herzegovina submitted its application in 2016, but the country has still not been granted candidate status. Kosovo hasn’t even sent off its application — the government in Pristina is probably shying away from the futile effort. Five EU countries have still not recognized Kosovo as independent.
Even just applying as a potential EU accession candidate is a lot of work. Selenski presented the second part of his application to the EU last week: in the form of nine thick books. The content: Answers to the accession questionnaire, for example why the country belongs in the association of states.
No country can complete the extensive application within a few months. Nevertheless, the Ukrainians managed to do it in record time – because they had the appropriate help from the Commission. This shows how willing the Brussels authorities are to send a positive signal to Kyiv and have greater influence.
“The candidate status will structurally help Ukraine on its way to freedom and peace. The EU will then have more instruments at its disposal. Therefore, the candidate status is well justified,” said the Austrian EPP MEP Lukas Mandl to the Handelsblatt. Announcing imminent membership is dubious, however, since the country still has a long way to go.
“When we talk about Ukraine, we also have to talk about Bosnia-Herzegovina.”
(Photo: dpa)
At Council level, however, the EU foreign ministers discussed this Monday above all how to send positive signals to the Western Balkans. “Let’s get down to business, please,” said Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg before the meeting. “We need to move from lip service to actual action. We must not lose the countries of the Western Balkans.” It is known that Russia is taking advantage of the hesitation of the Europeans and is causing unrest there. For Schallenberg it is clear: “If we talk about Ukraine, we also have to talk about Bosnia-Herzegovina.”
Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said: “The main thing is to open the accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania in early summer.”
French President Emmanuel Macron, who is already a skeptic about EU expansion, prefers to use compromise tricks. Last week he presented his idea of a “European political community” to the EU Parliament in Strasbourg. All countries willing to join should first join this community and then work together, for example in the areas of security, energy supply or the free movement of people, and thus approximate EU standards. A country that has already left – Great Britain – could also take part. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz described this as an “interesting approach”.
The Ukrainians, however, do not think much of it. One does not fight for Europe in order to be treated second-class, was the reaction from Kyiv.
More: Serbia: what to do with a candidate country that rejects the EU?