Turkey may significantly benefit from the potential fall of Bashar al-Assad, enhancing its regional influence while navigating complex dynamics in Syria. With military involvement in Idlib and support for rebel factions, Turkey aims to establish a buffer zone against Kurdish forces and facilitate refugee returns. However, its long-term position remains uncertain, influenced by negotiations with groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and U.S. relations, as Ankara seeks stability amidst shifting power balances.
Turkey’s Strategic Gains Amidst the Changing Syrian Landscape
If the fall of Bashar al-Assad leads to a weakening of Iran and Russia, Turkey stands to gain significantly. The removal of Assad, a known adversary of Turkey, opens up new avenues for President Erdogan to enhance his nation’s influence in the region. The central question now is whether this newfound power will be sustainable in the long run. Insights from Didier Billion, deputy director of IRIS and an expert on Turkish affairs, shed light on this evolving situation.
The Role of Turkey in the Syrian Offensive
Turkey’s involvement in the Syrian conflict has been evident for some time, notably with the presence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib province. Since 2017, Turkish forces have operated on the ground due to the Astana agreement, which also includes Iran and Russia—countries that have backed Assad. In this complex web, Turkey has aligned itself with the rebels, effectively taking on the responsibility for security in Idlib, despite international legal implications.
During the offensive on November 27, both HTS and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) were active participants. Although the FSA is a coalition of various factions, they share one critical element: military support from Turkey. Their involvement in the offensive indicates that Ankara was well aware of the developments. A closer look at the conflict zones reveals that the FSA and HTS operated in distinct areas, effectively dividing control of the country.
Turkey’s Interests and Future Prospects
Turkey’s interests in Syria are twofold. Firstly, the potential end of Assad’s regime could facilitate the return of many refugees. Approximately 3.8 million Syrians have sought refuge in Turkey, with about 3.2 million remaining there currently. A noticeable trend of repatriation has emerged recently, reflecting Turkey’s ongoing concerns regarding its refugee population.
The second major aim for Turkey is the establishment of a ‘buffer zone’ along its border with Syria, extending 20 to 30 kilometers deep. This buffer is critical for Turkey to counter Kurdish forces associated with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which the Turkish government regards as a terrorist organization. The establishment of such a zone serves to diminish the potential threat of a ‘terrorist entity’ forming at their border, a scenario they are keen to prevent.
As Turkey navigates this complex landscape, the question remains: will its position of strength endure? While Turkey currently enjoys a favorable standing, uncertainties loom. Negotiations with HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Joulani are on the horizon, yet their differing agendas may complicate matters.
Additionally, U.S. involvement is a crucial factor. With Antony Blinken’s anticipated visit to Ankara, discussions regarding Syria and Kurdish forces are likely to take precedence. The U.S. views Kurdish groups as essential allies in the fight against the remnants of the Islamic State, which, although weakened, still poses a threat through sleeper cells.
As the situation unfolds, the dynamics between Turkey and these various factions will be pivotal. Ankara’s strategic decisions in the face of potential power vacuums will determine its long-term influence in Syria. Unlike Israel’s approach on the Golan Heights, Turkey’s current engagement appears more cautious, aiming for stability rather than outright dominance.
In conclusion, while Turkey is presently in a position of advantage, its future role in Syria will require careful maneuvering and diplomacy to maintain stability and address ongoing challenges.