Train, car, bike? The traffic distribution battle for billions begins

But a dispute has long broken out about whether the way we move around today still has a future – or whether something does not have to change radically. It’s about federal billions for the switch – and it’s about the scarce space in the cities.

The report of the NPM is inadequate, criticize environmental associations such as BUND together with lobby associations such as Allianz pro Schiene, the Association of German Transport Companies, the Association of Cities and the ADFC Bicycle Club.

Auto President Müller is surprised

“We need three times as many cycle paths in town and country – and for this a new distribution of the space in the municipalities,” said ADFC Federal Managing Director Ann-Kathrin Schneider. City Council representative Helmut Dedy made it clear that cities are “places to live” and “not parking spaces”.

Allianz-pro-Schiene managing director Dirk Flege called for “ambitious market share targets for environmentally friendly rail”. And Antje von Broock from BUND called for “reducing the number of cars and trucks”, as did Bremen’s Transport Senator Maike Schaefer (Greens), who called for “more alternatives to car ownership” “in order to reduce space requirements”.

The criticism should only be a foretaste of the debate in the coming months. A war of faith is imminent: keep it up with mobility, only carbon neutral? Or ring in the end of the car?

The curious thing: everyone was sitting at the table when the NPM discussed standards and norms, sector coupling, digitization and value chains and the central task of working group one of the NPM: making transport climate-neutral. Business and car manufacturers were just a few of the many representatives.

You take note of the criticism “with amazement”, said the President of the Association of the Automotive Industry, Hildegard Müller, the Handelsblatt. “We have always perceived the discussion and debates as very constructive and open and stand behind the decisions that were made by consensus.”

The head of working group one of the NPM, Franz Loogen, pointed out that the demands of the associations could all be found in the final report. Loogen is head of the E-Mobilbw in the main office, which, as an innovation agency on behalf of the state government of Baden-Württemberg, is shaping the upheaval.

It is important to combine a large number of environmentally friendly means of transport “in order to provide the transport service and to achieve the climate targets”. The car is also required for this. “Bicycles, trains, buses, e-trucks and e-cars, footpaths will have to complement each other optimally,” he told Handelsblatt.

Traffic emits far too many greenhouse gases

The NPM has determined that around 14 million electrically powered vehicles will have to be on the road by 2030 in order to achieve the national climate targets. This equates to the end of the burner. A much larger proportion of freight traffic will also have to flow electrically or with synthetic fuels. This requires up to 800,000 charging stations.

The market will hardly organize all of this on its own, billions in subsidies will be necessary, as will the construction of cycle paths or the expansion of the rail network in view of the current climate gap in traffic of around 20 million tons – in 2022 alone.

The federal states see the federal government as responsible: they are demanding an additional 1.5 billion euros per year for local transport alone. Only in this way can local transport “be strengthened as the backbone of sustainable mobility to the extent necessary for climate protection,” said Baden-Württemberg’s Transport Minister Winfried Hermann (Greens). The state transport ministers base their demand on an expert opinion from the lobby association of transport companies.

However, relocation only brings a few million tons of CO2, as the NPM has determined. In road traffic, on the other hand, the potential savings through alternative drives and digitalization are 33 to 45 million tons. In view of the tight budgets, the debate over the next few weeks will also focus on how expensive it will be to save a ton of CO2 with one or the other measure. A speed limit on motorways, which could quickly save at least two million tons of CO2, is likely to be the cheapest.

The demands have long played a role in the talks between the SPD, the Greens and the FDP. The Greens alone want to invest 50 billion euros in the infrastructure so that in the future people will mainly travel by bus and train. The FDP insists on adhering to the debt brake. What to do in the face of empty coffers?

Employers and residents could get the bill

An inkling can be made out in Baden-Württemberg, where the Greens recently set up their local transport plan with the CDU: By 2030, twice as many people in the state are to travel by bus and train. Everyone should pay for the change – through municipal taxes for residents and employers. A city toll is also available as an option. In return, citizens could receive local transport credit.

In addition to the question of who should finance the switch, it is still unclear which form of mobility will be self-sufficient in the future. Bus and rail have always been subsidized by the state – car sharing offers and other so-called “micromobility” have not yet paid off.

“With the sharpened climate targets, the requirement to implement solutions that are available by 2030 is increasing,” said Loogen. “At the same time, innovations are necessary in order to become climate neutral by 2045. “All solutions must be presented in a way that can be financed privately and by the state, and it is important to win the support of broad sections of society for the decisive changes,” he warned.

The automobile is economical. At least the automobile companies have made billions in profits. At the same time, in Germany alone, 3.26 million people earn their livelihood around automobiles, as the Institute of the German Economy and Fraunhofer IAO have determined on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Economics.

118 of the 401 districts and urban districts “have a special character from the automotive industry” and have so far been particularly innovative, it says. However, 40 of these regions will find it particularly difficult to master the change away from the internal combustion engine. It is about 140,000 out of 260,000 employees nationwide who still work specifically in the conventional sector. The regions badly affected include Bamberg, the Saarpfalz district, Salzgitter and Schweinfurt.

The auto industry should remain a key industry

At the same time, the study has already identified 125,000 employees who work in the future fields of electrification, automation and networking. Most of them work in Lake Constance, Ingolstadt and Wolfsburg, but also in Bavaria, Saxony and Thuringia.

While the industry itself intends to invest around 150 billion euros in future fields over the next few years, the federal government intends to support structural change in the regions particularly affected by means of a one billion euros fund. The climate protection goals in Europe as in Germany ensured that the manufacturers got out of the combustion engine earlier than planned, according to the study. This has resulted in job cuts, “which is currently taking place”.

The NPM has also had this change in mind and has already initiated “regional competence hubs” in which the working world of tomorrow is emerging and replacing the old production processes. The results of the working groups were also incorporated into the various car summits in the Chancellery.

From the point of view of the automotive industry, the work of the NPM is therefore a great success. “All modes of transport and the respective requirements were taken into account in the cooperation,” summarized VDA President Müller. She relies on “dialogue and cooperation instead of confrontation. There is “infinite potential” in networking the modes of transport. The Hamburg app, for example, should show how much.

More: Autonomous driving: government is waiting for manufacturers