The US jobs report for February was a mixed bag, which seemed to have sparked interest from several bulls in altcoins including BTC and DOGE. What are the key upsides that will signal a sustained recovery in bitcoin and altcoins? Crypto analyst Rakesh Upadhyay examines the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
An overview of the cryptocurrency market
cryptocoin.comAs you follow, Bitcoin (BTC) made a sharp sell-off in the crypto markets on March 9 as the troubles in Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank dampened investor sentiment. In addition, the crypto-specific news of a lawsuit filed by New York Attorney General Letitia James for selling securities and commodities without registering with cryptocurrency exchange KuCoin has increased uncertainty over the future of crypto industry regulation. The selling momentum continued on March 10, pulling Bitcoin below $20,000. A few other cryptocurrencies have also dropped below key support levels.
But one small positive thing in the bulls’ favor is that the February employment report is a mixed bag. Average earnings increased less than expected, although nonfarm payrolls rose 311,000 per month, beating estimates of a 225,000 increase. This lowered the Federal Reserve’s expectation of a 50 basis point rate hike at its March meeting from 68% on March 9 to 42% on March 10. Now it’s time for analysis…
BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP and ADA analysis
Bitcoin (BTC): A recovery is possible
Bitcoin easily passed the $21,480 support on March 9. Selling continued on March 10 and the price dropped below the critical support of $20,000.
The decline over the past few days has sent the relative strength index (RSI) into the oversold territory. This suggests that selling may have been overkill in the near term and a rebound is possible. During a sharp decline, markets often tend to overshoot to the downside. The same may have happened here. The bulls will try to start a recovery from current levels, but may face strong resistance at higher levels. The bears will try to turn the $21,480 level into resistance. In such a case, BTC could bounce back and retest the $20,000 support. If this level breaks down, the next stop could be $18,000.
Ethereum (ETH): ETH could drop to $1,352
ETH witnessed an aggressive sell-off on March 9 that drove the price below the strong support at $1,461.
ETH could drop to $1,352 where the bulls will likely form a strong defense. If the price rises above $1,352, the recovery could hit the wall at $1,461. If the price turns down from this level, it will increase the probability of a drop to $1,200. If the bulls want to avoid a decline, they will have to quickly push the price above $1,461. Such a move would imply strong buying at lower levels. ETH could then reach the 20-day exponential moving average ($1,565).
Binance Coin (BNB): completes H&M model
BNB bounced back from the 20-day EMA ($294) on March 8 and dropped below solid support at $280. This move completed a bearish head and shoulders (H&S) pattern.
Typically, the price returns to retest the level of casting from the model. If the price drops below $280, it will show that the bears have turned the level into resistance. This could bring BNB down to $245 and then the $222 model target. On the contrary, if the bulls push the price above $280, BNB could reach the 20-day EMA. This level could again attract strong selling, but if the bulls absorb the supply and do not allow BNB to drop below $280, this will indicate the start of a rebound.
Ripple (XRP): Selling at higher levels
XRP broke above the descending channel pattern on March 8, but the long wick on the day’s candlestick indicates selling at higher levels.
The bears pulled the price back into the channel on March 9, which may have trapped aggressive longs. XRP has reached solid support at $0.36. If this level continues, XRP could reach the support line of the channel near $0.33. Contrary to this assumption, if the price bounces back from $0.36, the bulls will make another attempt to push XRP above the channel. If successful, XRP could rise to the overhead resistance at $0.43.
Cardano (ADA): Bears prevail over bulls
ADA broke below the $0.32 support on March 8 and the bears thwarted any attempts by the bulls to push the price above the March 9 level.
Selling resumed on March 10 and the bears pulled the price below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.30. This opens the possibility of more declines to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.27. Buyers are currently trying to push the price back above $0.32. If they do, it will suggest solid demand at lower levels. ADA could then rise to the 20-day EMA ($0.34). Bulls will need to break through this hurdle to signal their return to the game.
DOGE, MATIC, SOL, DOT and SHIB analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE): Bears in total control
DOGE easily broke below the strong support near $0.07, which has not been convincingly broken since October 2022. This shows that the bears are in complete control.
The RSI has dived into the oversold territory, indicating that a minor consolidation or relief rally is possible. DOGE bulls are expected to defend the region between $0.06 and $0.05 with all their might. Because a break below this could cause panic selling. On the upside, buyers will face stiff resistance at $0.07 and again at the downtrend line. If DOGE price turns down from this area, the bears will again try to push DOGE below the $0.05 vital support.
Polygon (MATIC): Traders sell aggressively
MATIC fell sharply on March 8 and settled back to the strong support at $1.05. Ideally, this level should have attracted aggressive buying but this did not.
This indicates that traders are selling aggressively. The uninterrupted selling brought the price below $1.05 on March 9, and the bears resumed their selling on March 10. However, the long tail on the candlestick points to solid buying near the $0.91 support. The bulls will attempt to push the price back above the $1.05 breakout level. If they manage to do so, MATIC could rise to the 20-day EMA ($1.17). On the other hand, if the price drops from the current level, it will show that the bears are not willing to give up their advantage. This increases the risk of falling into the critical support zone between $0.74 and $0.69.
Solana (LEFT): The Bears are back in the driver’s seat
After a weak attempt to hold $19.68 on March 7, the SOL broke below support on March 8. This indicates that the bears are back in the driver’s seat.
The SOL has minor support at $15.28 where the bulls are trying to stop the decline again and form a higher bottom. Any attempt to rebound will likely face a strong sell-off at $19.68 and again at the resistance line. A break above this level will signal a potential trend change. On the downside, if the $15.28 level breaks down, the SOL could drop to $12.85 followed by the critical psychological support of $10.
Polkadot (DOT): In a strong correction phase
DOT is in a strong correction phase. The bears pushed the price below the key support at $5.56 on March 9.
Selling continued on March 10, but the long tail on the candlestick points to strong buying near $5, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This is a very important level for the bulls to defend. Because a break below this could open the doors for a 100% retracement to $4.22. Conversely, if the price rises and climbs back above $5.56, that would indicate solid demand at the lower levels. The DOT could then climb to the 20-day EMA ($6.14), where the bears can again make a strong defense.
Shiba Inu (SHIB): Strong selling at 20-day EMA
Buyers tried to start a recovery on SHIB on March 8, but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows strong selling near the 20-day EMA ($0.000012).
SHIB bounced back and broke below the $0.000011 support on March 9. The bulls are currently trying to protect the $0.0000010 psychological level. If successful, the SHIB could initiate a relief rally towards the 20-day EMA, where the bulls could face strong selling again by the bears. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, this will indicate that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. This increases the probability of a break below $0.0000010. If this happens, SHIB could drop to $0.000008.
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