Germany’s “Traffic Light” coalition, comprising the SPD, Greens, and FDP, has officially disbanded following Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner. With the SPD and Greens lacking a Bundestag majority, they plan to pursue key legislative proposals before Christmas, needing opposition support. Leadership changes are imminent, particularly within the FDP. Current polls suggest a challenging outlook for the SPD in potential new elections, with the CDU/CSU leading and the possibility of a grand coalition or alliances forming.
The End of the Traffic Light Coalition in Germany
After almost three years of collaboration, Germany’s government coalition, known as the “Traffic Light” coalition, has officially concluded. This coalition, consisting of the SPD, Greens, and FDP, faced a significant turning point when Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner. He revealed plans to present a question of confidence in the Bundestag on January 15, which could potentially lead to new elections in March of the following year. The opposition is now criticizing this timeline and advocating for an earlier confidence vote, possibly within the next week.
Current Government Status and Future Implications
Is there currently no functioning government in Germany? The answer is yes; the SPD and Greens lack a majority in the Bundestag. Without the FDP’s 91 members, they hold only 324 seats, which is insufficient for an absolute majority. Consequently, the federal government can only function under existing laws. However, Chancellor Scholz intends to push forward several legislative proposals concerning budget, pensions, and asylum before the Christmas break. Achieving this would necessitate support from opposition members.
Opposition leader Friedrich Merz, head of the CDU, has firmly stated that they will not enter a formal coalition under Chancellor Scholz. Whether the CDU and CSU would assist the current minority government in achieving necessary majorities will likely depend on specific circumstances and the governing coalition’s willingness to negotiate. While Scholz plans to engage in discussions with Merz, his decision not to expedite the confidence vote may hinder potential cooperation.
The FDP has indicated that it would support tax relief in the Bundestag provided that no new financial burdens are included in the legislative proposal. FDP leader Lindner also called for swift new elections, arguing that no one in a democracy should fear the electorate. He has accused the Chancellor of orchestrating the coalition’s collapse by pressuring him to abandon the debt brake.
Leadership Changes and Budgetary Concerns
In light of the coalition’s dissolution, key positions within the former FDP ministries are set to be reassigned. Chancellor Scholz has recommended Jörg Kukies, a trusted advisor, as the new Finance Minister. Kukies previously served as State Secretary in the Chancellery and has been an economic policy advisor to Scholz. Transport Minister Volker Wissing will remain in his role and is also expected to take on the Justice Ministry. Meanwhile, Green Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir will assume the Research Ministry from Bettina Stark-Watzinger.
What are the implications for Germany’s financial situation without a budget in 2025? The coalition struggled to reach an agreement on the federal budget for the upcoming year due to differing views. If the Red-Green coalition fails to pass a standard budget by year-end, Article 111 of the Basic Law will come into effect. This provision permits provisional budget management, allowing the government to fulfill legally mandated obligations while barring additional expenditures.
What occurs if Chancellor Scholz does not secure the confidence vote? He has the option to link this vote to a substantive issue, although it’s not mandatory. If he loses, the path to new elections opens up. Article 68 of the German Basic Law outlines the subsequent steps. Following a confidence vote loss, the Chancellor can request the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag and call for new elections. While President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is not obligated to comply, he is likely to do so, given the lack of alternatives. He has a 21-day window to initiate this process, with elections needing to occur within 60 days. Until a new government is appointed, the current Chancellor and government will continue in a caretaker role.
Does the Chancellor need to call for a confidence vote? Not necessarily. Theoretically, the Chancellor could remain in office until the end of the regular legislative period in autumn 2025. However, losing the confidence vote is a prerequisite for triggering new elections, and unlike in other countries, the German Bundestag cannot dissolve itself.
What are the chances of Scholz and the SPD forming the next federal government? Recent polling suggests a bleak outlook, with the SPD positioned third at only 15.5 percent, as indicated by Insa. The CDU/CSU leads with 32 percent, followed by the AfD at 18 percent. Other survey results corroborate this trend. The prevailing scenario points toward a CDU-led federal government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
While the SPD and AfD could technically form a coalition, the same applies to the Greens, as 16 percent of votes are attributed to parties that fail to surpass the 5 percent threshold. A coalition encompassing all mentioned parties could achieve a majority; however, the Union has consistently rejected any alliance with the right-wing AfD. Present indications suggest a possible return to a grand coalition with the Social Democrats or an alliance with the Greens, who garnered 10.5 percent of the vote. The Liberals face uncertainty regarding their re-entry into the Bundestag, currently polling at 4.5 percent, similar to the Left Party at 3.5 percent.