However, as in the Ukraine crisis, going underground on the evening of the election was of little use, and the message of the election result was clear: the defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia is also a defeat for the chancellor. Scholz had campaigned too hard for his SPD during the election campaign, not only greeting from election posters, but also trying to win back the home country of social democracy for the SPD with appearances on site.
But anyone who thought that Scholz would now take some responsibility for his party’s historically weak performance quickly saw a lesson. The Chancellor reacted calmly on Monday and wants to stay the course. This also applies to Ukraine policy, which, from the SPD point of view, superimposed state politics in the vote.
Scholz is convinced that “his level-headed, balanced course (…) is correct and that it is also supported by large parts of the population,” said government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil also doesn’t want to see a problem with the chancellor. However, he admitted deficits in the media self-portrayal.
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You have to “get better at communicating about what we’re doing,” said Klingbeil on Monday after a meeting of the executive committee. The question of inflation, of increased prices, is a topic that has “not been adequately addressed”. A lot has already been implemented, Klingbeil added, with a view to the two relief packages that were decided on in the amount of more than 30 billion euros.
Expert: “Scholz was not a motor for the SPD”
However, none of this can hide the fact that the comrades were still dreaming of a “social democratic decade” after Scholz was elected Chancellor. But less than half a year after the formation of the historic traffic light government in the federal government, the Scholz magic has already evaporated. The chancellor is not only not good as a draft horse. Rather, he was even ballast for the NRW-SPD in the election campaign, if one can believe the pollsters from Infratest Dimap.
>> Read also: The Greens after the election: Between triumph and consideration for humiliated traffic light partners
More than half of those entitled to vote criticized Scholz’s unclear course in the Ukraine war, just a third saw the chancellor as “great support” for the SPD. For a chancellor who has just taken office, these are worrying numbers.
“Scholz was not a driving force for the SPD – on the contrary,” agrees the Bonn political scientist Volker Kronenberg. “Obviously, the actions of the Federal Chancellor in the matter of Ukraine and the alarming proximity of some in the Social Democrats to Russia are viewed critically by a majority of voters.”
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For Scholz, the NRW election held a number of other unpleasant messages in addition to its own poor popularity ratings. The traffic light coalition was conspicuously friendly with each other on the evening of the election. But that doesn’t mean that the traffic lights will be quiet.
Friedrich Merz’s position is significantly strengthened
The crash of the FDP is likely to significantly increase nervousness in the liberal party. Party leader Christian Lindner could, also a fear in the SPD, dare to go it alone at the expense of the two left-wing coalition partners so that his party does not get trampled under the wheels.
The political scientist Kronenberg estimates that the FDP will try in the coming weeks to focus more on its own core concerns of relieving the middle class in particular and, for example, push for the reduction of the cold progression in order to be able to show a recognizable success in the traffic light. Governing within the traffic light becomes “more demanding and fragile”.
At the same time, Scholz faces two strong rivals. Under its new leader Friedrich Merz, the CDU won two out of three state elections. His position has been significantly strengthened by the NRW election, so Merz will feel confirmed in his relatively tough opposition course.
That could become a problem for Scholz, because the Chancellor is dependent on Merz’s cooperation, for example when voting on the amendment to the Basic Law for the planned 100 billion euro special fund for the Bundeswehr.
Unlike the FDP, Scholz does not have to expect any trouble from the big winner of the NRW election, the Greens. The pragmatic style of government of the eco-party since the outbreak of the Ukraine war has paid off so far and contributed to the great electoral successes in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia.
SPD-Left campaigns for traffic lights in NRW
But the new strength of the Greens becomes a danger for Scholz with a view to the next federal election. The Greens are increasingly becoming the third people’s party in the country and are chasing votes from the SPD in particular. The greatest threat to Scholz power could be Robert Habeck in the next federal election, provided the Vice Chancellor manages to keep his popularity in the next election campaign.
The nervousness is also increasing in the SPD. Weeks ago, comrades found that Scholz was hiding too much, letting things take their course and that he needed to explain his politics better. Despite the Chancellor’s recent media offensive, little has changed in this demand. “The policy of the federal government must be communicated and explained much more offensively,” said SPD member of the Bundestag Ralf Stegner to the Handelsblatt after the NRW election.
>> Read also: Comment on the performance of the FDP in NRW: The FDP does not deliver what the voters promised from it
However, a change of course or even a fresh start with a reorganization of the SPD ministers, such as replacing the controversial Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD), seems out of the question. Once Scholz is convinced of his course, he does not change it. The fact that everyone else is demanding that encourages Scholz not to do exactly that.
Scholz is convinced that the longer the crisis lasts, the clearer the citizens will recognize the guidelines on which he bases his Ukraine policy. Another problem in times of war is not always being able to disclose all decisions or options, according to the chancellor’s office.
In addition, the SPD is counting on other issues becoming more visible. SPD leader Klingbeil announced that he would now aggressively tackle further requirements agreed in the coalition agreement. They started the federal elections with clear socio-political promises, with a minimum wage of twelve euros, the new citizens’ allowance, with basic child security. “All of these are projects that we are now putting forward,” said Klingbeil. And he emphasized that these projects “do not wobble” even in times like these, when a turning point is taking place.
More on the subject of the NRW election:
And the SPD has not yet given up hope that the change of government in North Rhine-Westphalia could still succeed. The co-chairman of the forum for the democratic left in the SPD (DL21), Sebastian Roloff, says: “The traffic light works in the federal government – of course it is also a good model for NRW.”
More: “Traffic light is good for the country”: Lindner warns the FDP to coalition discipline