There is deja vu in the battle for the city of Avdiivka

Vienna Avdiivka is the city of deja vu. The eastern Ukrainian town had almost 35,000 inhabitants before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. This began not one year ago, but nine years ago, with Russia’s first raid on the Donbass: separatists supported by Moscow conquered Avdiivka, and in autumn 2014 the Ukrainians took the city back. Since then, fighting and artillery shelling have been part of everyday life for the population.

But the situation has never been as bad as it is now: According to Vitaly Barabash, the head of the military-civilian administration, there are still 2,000 people in the city. Getting them out is becoming increasingly difficult. The access routes to the west are under constant enemy artillery fire. Barabash speaks of a “road of death”. There are only “loopholes” for evacuations.

Like Bakhmut, 50 kilometers to the northeast, Avdiivka is a fortified town along the Ukrainian Defense Line, which has been in place since 2014. And as in Bakhmut, the Russians are trying to encircle Avdiivka. While their attacks around Bakhmut have been stagnating for several weeks, Russian forces in Avdiivka have recently advanced due to reinforcements, especially in the north of the city.

In view of the threat of encirclement, a Ukrainian military spokesman a few days ago described Avdiivka as a possible second Bakhmut. There are parallels, but the comparison is also imprecise.. In the past week there has been talk of several hundred deaths and injuries on both sides every day.

Ukrainians have repeatedly reported Russian attacks with phosphorus bombs and, in early March, cruise missiles. In an interview published on Friday, the political scientist and front-line fighter Taras Beresowez also says that Moscow is relying on assaults by mobilized troops in the area around Avdiivka. These were then followed in a second wave by better-trained soldiers who tried to exploit weaknesses in the Ukrainian positions. The information cannot be independently verified.

Beware of encirclement of the city

However, the city itself is considered difficult to capture because it contains a 340-hectare factory site. It commemorates the Azovstal factory in Mariupol, which the Russians besieged for five weeks before the defenders surrendered. The British secret service sees the winding buildings and cellars as “a key area that is particularly easy to defend” in a possible future decisive battle.

However, the Austrian military expert Tom Cooper, who is regularly quoted in the Ukrainian media, is concerned about the situation in the city: He refers to serious reports that the Russians recently dropped bombs directly from fighter jets. He interprets this as a sign that they considered the airspace safe enough and did not fear being shot down. “This creates a precarious situation for the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka.”

Although individual bloggers speak of the danger of an operational encirclement of the city, nobody assumes that the fall or a retreat will be imminent. The pro-Russian military expert Yuri Podoljaka, for example, expects the situation for the Ukrainians to deteriorate in three to four weeks in the best-case scenario for Moscow. He writes that Kiev has already sent reinforcements and could halt the Russian advance for the moment. This too would be a déjà vu from Bachmut.

Shelling of Donetsk

The fighting for Avdiivka also shows how little the front in Donbass has moved despite Russia’s superiority. The city is located just a few kilometers from the metropolis of Donetsk, which is controlled by pro-Moscow separatists and is therefore within range of Ukrainian artillery.

Local media regularly report on the shelling of civilian objects in Donetsk with deadly consequences for the population. The reports cannot be checked in detail, but independent observers believe them to be credible.

For the Russians, the expulsion of the Ukrainians from Avdiivka and the surrounding area is also important to show that they can ensure security and peace in the neighboring country’s annexed areas – especially when it comes to those who have been disappearing for almost a decade under Moscow’s control. Some Ukrainian observers also believe that the Russians fear that the planned counter-offensive could quickly lead to the capture of Donetsk.

This is how the Handelsblatt reports on the Ukraine war:

Whether the city is of great importance beyond that is rather doubtful. Before 2014, it played an important role in east-west traffic as a traffic junction through which, among other things, the European route 50 ran.

However, this has come to a standstill, as has the city’s industry. In 2013 the production of the coke plant was still 12,000 tons per day, today it is stopped. Avdiivka is mostly in ruins.

The same applies to many cities on the Donbass front. The Ukrainians hold the Russians in Bakhmut, Marjinka or Wuhledar to buy time, secure the rear and build new defense lines.

This is one of the reasons why the value of a success in Avdiivka is probably limited: a few kilometers to the south-west and west are the fortified towns of Kurakhove and Karlivka. Their populations would be the next to experience a humanitarian tragedy.

More: Current news on the development of the Ukraine war can be found in our news blog

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