Author Frank Wiebe analyzes the market data.
Frankfurt Last Friday is the target for the new stock market week with an average slight price minus. Concerns that stubborn inflation could lead to tight monetary policy and a recession set the trend on Friday, but it was not dramatic.
At least: As can be seen from the market data, the long-held expectation that the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again in the current year has disappeared.
The German share index (Dax) closed a third percent lower at 15,482 points. In the US, the broad S&P 500 index was only slightly down at 4079 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell a little over half a percentage point to 12,357 points.
Even before the weekend, Deutsche Bank gave hope with a new study on the gas market. While there were still great concerns in the autumn that gas could become scarce this winter, the bank now believes that the supply in Germany is secured even for the coming winter.
“Our calculations show that full gas storage facilities in July will put Germany in a good starting position for next winter,” it says. The bank is assuming “continued low demand from industry”. However, increasing demand from China is mentioned as a possible risk.
BASF, on the other hand, sees higher burdens than in 2022
Conversely, an adequate supply should benefit the economy and German industry. BASF boss Martin Brudermüller, however, is less optimistic. In an interview with the “FAZ”, he warned that the energy crisis could have an even greater impact on the German economy in the current year than in 2022. His company will present the annual results on Friday.
In the course of the week, many other companies will present their earnings figures for 2022 and the prospects for 2023 and thus also provide information about the economic trend: on Tuesday Walmart and Home Depot in the USA and HSBC in the UK; on Wednesday Nvidia in the US and in Europe Rio Tinto, Iberdrola, Stellantis, Fresenius and FMC; on Thursday Deutsche Telekom, Telefónica, Eni, St. Gobain and Munich Re; on Friday then, apart from BASF, Dell in the USA.
In addition, figures on the economy are due: on Tuesday the purchasing manager indices and the ZEW index, on Wednesday the Ifo index. Robert Greil from Merck Finck expects the economic data to show a positive trend: “at least stable to slightly better”.
More: Norma, Elmos, SFC Energy – The winners and losers of the stock market week