Are we already living in the “twilight of democracy,” as Pulitzer Prize winner Anne Applebaum fears in her new book The Lure of Authoritarianism? In any case, the current Bertelsmann Transformation Index, which measures the development of underdeveloped countries and emerging countries every two years towards constitutional democracy, points in this direction: For the first time, more autocracies than democracies are listed there worldwide – 70 authoritarian regimes are currently opposed to 67 democratically legitimized governments .
It is no less alarming that, according to the non-governmental organization Freedom House, democratic capitalism has been in retreat for the 15th year in a row. According to the organization, one observes a clear “trend towards tyranny”. Apparently there is a longing that spreads like an oil stain for “cleansing” violence and the suppression of the “decadent” West. In addition, fake news and conspiracy theories are spreading like digital wildfire.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, who is waging an extermination campaign in parts of Ukraine like the National Socialists 80 years ago, reinterprets his aggression as a “liberation struggle” against the “Nazis” who rule the brother country – and at the same time invokes “pride in our strong Russia”. Moscow may rightly see the eastward expansion of NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union as a threat to Russian security interests.
Putin stands for macho authoritarianism
First and foremost, however, those in power in the Kremlin are probably concerned with establishing a “cultural” cordon sanitaire: the idea of free elections, separation of powers, the rule of law and freedom of expression must be kept out of their sphere of influence – so that autocratic rule is not endangered.
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Even more than Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro or former US President Donald Trump, Putin embodies a macho authoritarianism that sees itself as a bulwark against “effeminacy”, “self-doubt” and “uprooting” – i.e. “unvalues” that are inherent in the Western model of democracy must.
The authoritarian credo is that one must resolutely rule from top to bottom instead of relying on tough political decision-making processes. This way of thinking has long found adherents in democratic states as well – far beyond Hungary and Poland, which are EU members but where there can no longer be any question of an independent judiciary.
The attraction of authoritarianism, as the Transformation Index shows, has now also infected countries such as India, Bulgaria and Serbia.
The Western model also threatens to erode from within. If the right-wing populist Marine Le Pen had emerged victorious from the French presidential election on Sunday instead of incumbent Emmanuel Macron, the European Union would have been threatened with an implosion.
Le Pen’s result of a good 41 percent of the vote should give cause for concern from the Democrats’ point of view. To make matters worse: In view of the dramatic decline in US President Joe Biden’s popularity ratings, it currently seems anything but impossible that Trump will be able to celebrate a comeback as the next US President.
For all his nationalism, Xi is a rational politician
This time, according to political scientist Thomas Homer-Dixon, it would destroy the democratic system like a “wrecking ball”. In fact, in January 2021, Trump led the country into the worst domestic political crisis in decades by calling for the almost successful storming of the Capitol. If Putin is still in power in 2024, he is likely to support Trump’s election campaign even more than last time, with all the techniques of disinformation. Because Russia’s president knows that Trump would not treat him as a pariah on the geopolitical stage.
Even more dangerous for the world than Putin’s war against Ukraine would be a scenario in which China’s leadership launches a military attack on the “breakaway province” of Taiwan during Trump’s second term in office. Theoretically, this scenario could trigger a nuclear exchange of blows, since the island republic is largely isolated diplomatically, but is under the military umbrella of the USA. However, there is little to suggest that this scenario will become a reality.
Despite all his nationalism, Xi seems to be a politician who thinks and acts rationally. And unlike Putin, he has so far not relied on a military showdown in the struggle for expanded spheres of influence. His rule rests above all on a promise to further increase the prosperity of his people – a promise that China’s political leaders have fulfilled with unprecedented success in recent decades. Xi will not risk ending this success story with a military adventure.
The Kremlin must be prevented from any further expansion
Since the People’s Republic remains just as dependent on the import of Western technologies as it is on Western sales markets for goods produced in China, Beijing is likely to play a geopolitical role of moderation and pacification in the coming years – even if Trump’s presidency and Brexit have strengthened the Chinese leadership’s conviction , their own state capitalism is vastly superior to the market economy system of the West.
It is now up to the western democracies to convince states like China, India and South Africa to prevent Putin or his successor from any further territorial expansion in Eastern Europe in the interest of their own economic development. If this were to succeed, a lot would already have been gained.
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In addition, since the attack on Ukraine, the western camp has presented itself as united and determined as never before. That could give the Western project new radiance. Especially since NATO, once declared “obsolete” by Trump and “brain dead” by Macron, is experiencing a renaissance.
Putin’s brutal attack has welded the democratic camp together. If the global trend towards dictatorship is to be stopped, the EU must finally play a stronger geopolitical role. It can only do that if there is at least a common defense policy, the paralyzing principle of unanimity in foreign policy is abolished and an EU foreign minister is installed.
The darkness of dictatorship follows the twilight of democracy
A look at history makes it clear that this is necessary: as after the implosion of the Eastern bloc in 1989/91, democracy had already begun a triumphal procession in many countries in Eastern and Southeastern Europe after the end of the First World War in 1918. This triumphant advance was then more and more undermined by authoritarian right-wing movements – with unleashed nationalism, the fomenting of ethnic conflicts and unbridled criticism of “those up there”.
On the eve of World War II, only Czechoslovakia was still a democratic republic in the region. The historical example shows that the twilight of democracy is followed by the darkness of dictatorship.
The authors: Bert Rürup is Chief Economist at Handelsblatt and President of the Handelsblatt Research Institute. Michael Brackmann is a journalist and oversees the Global Challenges series.
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