The West fears escalation

Berlin, Dusseldorf Amos Hochstein is hardly known in Europe – nevertheless, the 49-year-old American could play a key role in the Ukraine conflict. Hochstein is the US special envoy for energy security at the State Department. He is more networked in the American energy industry and politics than anyone else. And he is the most resolute advocate of a hard line on Russia.

As early as autumn, before the supply bottlenecks in Europe became acute, Hochstein called for energy to be used as a weapon like Russia. And even before the Ukraine conflict escalated at the end of December, Hochstein, who is actually a staunch opponent of the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline, campaigned not to endanger transatlantic unity with Moscow in the conflict over it

Now the special representative has what is probably his most important task in the Ukraine crisis: US President Joe Biden wants to protect Europe from possible counter-reactions by Russia to Western sanctions. The US government is proactively preparing contingency plans for gas supplies to Europe in the event that Russian President Vladimir Putin cuts off gas supplies.

A spokesman for the National Security Council confirmed the emergency plans. The US State Department has started talks with energy companies about this, the Reuters news agency had previously reported, citing industry and government circles. The EU obtains around a third of its gas requirements from Russia.

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The signs point to escalation

In fact, the signs in the Ukraine conflict point to escalation. Diplomatic efforts over the past week – the US-Russia talks in Geneva, the Russia-NATO Council in Brussels and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) summit in Vienna – have not defused the situation.

On the contrary: Russia continues to provoke as if nothing had happened. The USA warn of the “emergency”. The National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, said with regard to the Russian troop deployment of 100,000 Russian soldiers on the border with Ukraine: “The risk of a military invasion is high.” The most important security adviser to US President Joe Biden called on Moscow to de-escalate and reduce it of soldiers in the region.

Should Russia decide to invade the neighboring country, “the consequences will be much more severe than in the past,” warned its Foreign Minister Antony Blinken. The United States would then also activate the United Nations Security Council. “All options for a Security Council response are on the table,” the US government said.

The warning fades away in Moscow. President Vladimir Putin began holding military maneuvers again on the border with Ukraine on Friday. The Ministry of Defense in the capital Moscow announced that there had been an unannounced review of combat readiness in the East Military District.

It released a video showing columns of military vehicles and tanks being loaded onto railroad cars. Soldiers were taken to remote training areas. A focus was also on the infrastructure “to ensure the transport of troops within a certain time,” it said.

The cyber attacks on Ukraine are also continuing: After numerous government websites were paralyzed on Friday and tagged with the slogan “Be afraid and expect the worst”, Microsoft announced further attacks in Ukraine on Saturday: A large amount of malware had been smuggled in .

A Russian tank during a military exercise

The danger of a military confrontation between Russia and the West is increasing.

(Photo: dpa)

The information on the US software company’s blog suggests that the website attack was a diversion to deploy the malware. The EU has now promised Kiev extensive help in defending against cyber attacks

Russia’s OSCE representative is now speaking of a “moment of truth” in the coming week. By then, Moscow is demanding a written response to its demands for Ukraine to be banned from joining NATO, for the alliance to withdraw from Eastern Europe and for American nuclear weapons to be withdrawn.

And Alexander Lukashevich added: “Russia is a peace-loving country. But we don’t need peace at any price.” The “risk of war in Europe is higher than it has been for 30 years,” warned Poland’s Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau, who currently heads the OSCE.

Russia threatens to station troops in Latin America

In order to reinforce its threat, Moscow is now igniting in the United States’ front yard: if talks on binding security guarantees for Russia fail, Russian troops have been threatened to be stationed in Cuba and Venezuela. “If Russia were to move in this direction, we would act decisively,” said US National Security Advisor Sullivan. The United States and its allies are “prepared for any eventuality.”

Ukraine crisis

A Ukrainian soldier smokes in a trench at the dividing line with pro-Russian rebels in the Donetsk region.

(Photo: dpa)

The US government also accused Moscow of using “false flag” acts of sabotage in eastern Ukraine to prepare an excuse for an invasion. According to US information, agents trained in “urban warfare” have already been deployed, said White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

The information indicated that these agents would begin using provocations on state and social media to justify an intervention. “These media reports also blame the West for the escalation of tensions,” she said. This approach was already seen in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea.

Russia has dismissed the US allegations as “unfounded”. As is so often the case, supposedly sensational news was being spread by the US without any basis for it, the Russian embassy in Washington said on Saturday. “As usual, no evidence is presented.”

The Russian embassy called on the US side to end the “information pressure” and move on to factual work. “Russia is against war. We are for a diplomatic solution to all international problems.”

In Washington, meanwhile, there is growing impatience that the EU has not yet agreed on concrete sanctions should Russia invade Ukraine, leading US media reported over the weekend. The discussed shutdown of Russia from the international Swift payment system has been rejected by some EU countries.

Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan acknowledged that the US and EU “are not yet in full agreement”. The designated CDU chairman Friedrich Merz recently warned against excluding Russia from Swift. “Questioning Swift could be the atomic bomb for the capital markets.” He warned of “massive economic setbacks” for Germany as well.

Russian economy is suffering increasingly

However, the growing tensions with the West initially weighed primarily on the Russian economy. The Moscow stock index RTS fell by almost ten percent on Thursday and Friday. The Russian national currency has fallen to its lowest level since June last year. Russian banks, which are threatened with exclusion from the Swift international payment system, are becoming increasingly nervous.

Until a new agreement is reached, Russian assets will trade at a significant risk premium and companies will delay their investment decisions,” Credit Suisse warns in a recent analysis of Russia.

Russia sees its security threatened by NATO and is therefore demanding an end to the eastward enlargement and, in particular, a refusal to accept Ukraine and the withdrawal of units that have been stationed in Eastern Europe since 1997. The NATO and EU members reject this unanimously and emphasize that each country decides for itself whether to join alliances.

Baerbock travels to Kiev and Moscow

Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who is traveling to Kiev and Moscow next week, recently advocated continuing talks with Russia, despite the lack of results so far.

Ukraine hopes for German arms deliveries. The Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin, Andriy Melnyk, urged Baerbock to promise Kiev the delivery of weapons for national defense. The reluctance or even rejection of armaments aid by Baerbock and the entire new federal government is “very frustrating and bitter,” he said.

NATO-Russia Council meets in Brussels

Jens Stoltenberg (right), Secretary General of NATO, welcomes Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko (middle) and Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin.

(Photo: dpa)

Whether Putin will ultimately dare military escalation or allow negotiations to mutually improve the security situation remains to be seen. Western politicians want to talk to Moscow about new arms control initiatives, concrete disarmament steps and more transparency in maneuvers. The aim is to take the other person’s concerns about unexpected military action.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made it clear that Moscow is demanding written security guarantees about NATO’s withdrawal and does not want to talk endlessly about disarmament steps. Tom Schwartz, a professor of politics at Vanderbilt University, speaks of a “test moment” for the West. Putin is doing everything to demonstrate power. “He wants to show that the American-led international order is quite fragile.”

In the end, perhaps the only hope lies in a summit meeting between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden soon.

When Barack Obama acknowledged that Russia was “just a regional power,” he deeply offended the Kremlin, says an influential Russian lawmaker who declined to be named amid a surge of nationalist sentiment in Moscow. For this reason, the only thing that counts for Russia is being on an equal footing with Washington and returning to great power status.

More: Negotiating with the Russian aggressor: what does Putin want?

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