ancient times knew seven wonders of the world, such as the colossus of Rhodes. In yesterday’s general election, the republic also experienced seven miracles. And we will all still need some time to really understand them. Or let’s say it with an old aphorism: “There is no miracle for those who cannot be surprised.”
The first miracle: concerns the first place of the SPD with around 26 percent, almost two points ahead of the Union. It cannot be assumed that leading Social Democrats went on a pilgrimage to Lourdes. But for the comrades, this result is as if Willy Brandt – the great pillar saint of the party – had appeared to them with a message.
A year ago, the country had been whimpering collectively when Olaf Scholz complained in the poll that he wanted to become chancellor. In the end he was helped by what economists call “windfall profit” – the obvious weakness of Union rival Armin Laschet. This even led the economically liberal “Economist” to speak out in favor of a “traffic light” coalition under the dignified Vice Chancellor. The election decided that around 1.4 million Union voters changed sides. Forget the fact that not even the own party had elected the alleged apparatchik Scholz as party leader. Now one cheers.
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The second miracle: has to do with the struggle for interpretive sovereignty, the most important “mind game” in politics. This struggle leads to the fact that, despite its worst election result in German history, the Union actually claims to want to lead the next federal government. Anyone who wants to have chutzpah declared has to listen to the “I-want-to-become-Chancellor” sound of Armin Laschet. He sees himself as a top integrator and reconciler of Johannes Rau caliber for a “future coalition”, as if the union had not had 16 years for “future”. We think: It is somehow symptomatic that Laschet made a mistake in the voting room and threw in the ballot incorrectly folded.
The third miracle: is the unwavering belief of the Bavarian regional party CSU that it is a power in Germany. In fact, the descendants of the brave “Ochsensepp”, the first party leader Josef Müller, have now achieved their worst result in a federal election with 33 percent in Bavaria. It was her self-proclaimed candidate for Chancellor Markus Söder who only really pissed off the Union with intrigues against Armin Laschet. After the CDU had already worn out a party leader in record time with Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, their successor never had the chance to reach altitude due to the Bavarian obscurants.
Söder did not have Laschet glued in the Free State, but posters with self-reference: “So that Bavaria remains strong in Germany.” In the “Berlin Round” he spoke of a “clap against red-red-green”, the coalition that Scholz allegedly favored. Söder shares the relief about the lack of a majority in favor of a “left slide” with the family entrepreneurs we asked – they are betting on “Jamaica”.
The fourth miracle: refers to the speed with which on the evening of the election the FDP (11.5 percent) and the Greens (14.6 percent) – the two winners among the first-time voters – agreed a rendezvous on the way to power. It was the two party chairmen Christian Lindner and Robert Habeck, who liked to dozen of each other, who raved about a way out of the political center in front of the cameras. So: First of all, test each other’s spirit for large projects, then devote yourself to the larger Union and SPD formations. That has never happened before.
But before that there were always popular parties beyond the 30 percent – and not two larger medium-sized and two smaller medium-sized parties. In Habeck’s words: It is no longer just so that red-green is strong and then a “yellow filler” is added. The negative example for him are the past “Jamaica” coalition talks: “If we always do the opposite of 2017, it can turn out to be something.”
Wherever Habeck describes the future, Annalena Baerbock too often has to explain the past – Including her mistakes, which turned the chancellor’s dream into a story of bad luck. Even if your party rose to the third strongest party with a clear plus.
The fifth miracle: revolves around the pace at which Angela Merkel’s once glorious legacy is fading. The more people talk about the overdue modernization of the country, the stronger the accusation that the person responsible up to now has made a mess here. More and more people are realizing that the East German pastor’s daughter, who rose in the turmoil of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the party donation scandal, was a good manager of acute crises, but by no means a good designer.
As head of the party, she did so little to develop the internal structures that the CDU was now unable to campaign. And as the head of the country, she is responsible for an outrageously poor status in digitization, infrastructure and climate protection. For many in the country, Merkel ended the Union after 16 years – just like Kohl once did after 16 years. Incidentally, Merkel’s old constituency in Western Pomerania fell to the SPD.
The sixth miracle: reflects the special conditions in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. While all the experts argue about the fractionation and atomization of the party landscape as if they were talking about the extinction of the dinosaurs at the end of the Cretaceous Period, Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig achieved 40 percent (plus nine) in the state elections with her SPD. Strong personalities make their own trend just like weak personalities, only in a desirable direction. The success of Schwerin proves everyone is right, who see Schwesig as a favorite either for the job of party leader or that of the Federal Chancellor – if the time comes in 2025.
The seventh miracle: is about how it was ultimately possible for most of them to cast their votes in Berlin – for the Bundestag election, the election to the House of Representatives, for district elections and a referendum on the expropriation of real estate companies (around 57 percent in favor). In individual polling stations, the last citizens did not vote until around 8.30 p.m. In a panic, more ballot papers had to be brought in in between, and voters stood in line for their basic democratic right. A debate has already begun about distorting the election results and contesting the Berlin election. The Justice Senator wants to investigate the breakdowns, and the Federal Returning Officer is also alarmed.
In Berlin, by the way, the SPD narrowly won with around 22 percent against the Greens, who scored around 20 percent. In relative terms, this stand is a greater success for their top candidate Bettina Jarasch than for their social democratic opponent Franziska Giffey, who was firmly planned as a major election campaign cannon.
And then there is Hans-Georg Maaßen, Ex-President of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, who suffered a heavy defeat for the Christian Democrats in the South Thuringian constituency in 196. The political right wing was defeated there against the SPD candidate Frank Ullrich, the ex-biathlon Olympic champion, who received more than 33 percent of the vote. The Greens had also called for his election. Maaßen was around 22 percent, just ahead of the AfD rival.
Ullrich’s victory is even celebrated by some in the Thuringian CDU, such as the mayor of Altenburg, André Neumann: He is “extremely pleased” with that. We know from the writer Samuel Beckett: “Nothing is funnier than the misfortune (of others).”
I wish you a good start into what will certainly be a very political week.
I warmly greet you
you
Hans-Jürgen Jakobs
Senior editor
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