The Political Comeback of War – Handelsblatt Morning Briefing

we thought we were dealing with a “chess player”, not a war criminal. We believed he was playing by the rules and not betting his own. We figured he just wanted respect, not submission. We hoped that the dirty business of secret service obstruction was only his past and now we know: It should also be his future.

Lots of misconceptions about Vladimir Putin, the man who brought the bomb alarm over Kiev and Chernobyl, and the horror of the coldest of all Cold Wars like a gang leader about the shocked world. The Russian President may feel like Lenin. He’s nothing more than a militiaman with a penchant for paranoia.

The events of the last few hours – the invasion of a sovereign state by land, air and sea – are not just the return of the Prussian military wisdom of a Carl von Clausewitz: “The war is a mere continuation of politics by other means.” It’s not just about breaking a unique taboo, comparable to Hitler’s attack on Poland on September 1, 1939, which, like in eastern Ukraine, began with a huge lie: “Since 5:45 a.m will now be shot back.”

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The truly dramatic is the end of the “detente”, the détente between states, the “peace dividend”. The morality of disarmament is fading away, like belief in globalization before it. You pull the curtain aside and see land grabbing, new mercantilism and violence.

If Russia can annex Ukraine just like that, what will become of China’s nuisance Taiwan? Defense company stocks will soar. For Germany, a statement by the army inspector Alfons Mais stuck: “In my 41st year of service in peacetime, I would not have believed that I would have to experience another war. And the Bundeswehr, the army that I am allowed to lead, is more or less blank.”

The asymmetry in the Ukraine war is that some have guns and others just words. Yesterday, US President Joe Biden spoke of “strong” sanctions, four major Russian banks will be cut off from the US financial system, exports to the evil empire will be restricted and other individuals from Putin’s environment will be excluded. Warmonger Putin must become a “pariah on the world stage”.

The EU also passed similar sanctions yesterday evening – in the financial sector, in transport and in visa policy. The shares of Putin’s state-owned companies are no longer traded in the EU, and there are no longer any spare parts from Europe for Russian aircraft.

“Our sanctions will hit the heart of the Russian economy,” believes Belgium’s Prime Minister Alexander De Croo.

However, measures against Putin himself are still missing, as are Russia’s exclusion from the Swift international payment system and import bans on natural gas. A current statement by Sigmar Gabriel has been valid for so long: Putin considers us “sissies”.

Europe, especially Germany under Olaf Scholz, fears the economic costs for the domestic economy that would be associated with an even tougher pace. Putin’s bellicism is already becoming so expensive for us, as we explain in our big weekend report. The gas price has recently risen by around 60 percent to EUR 143.30 per megawatt hour.

According to estimates by the German Economic Institute, the total damage could amount to 70 billion euros. For the German economy, the skirmishes in the east mean production losses, supply problems, perhaps up to 6.1 percent inflation this year – and a dwindling investor’s confidence.

Rüdiger von Fritsch: The diplomat, Germany’s ambassador to Russia until June 2019, sees signs that Putin decided the invasion single-handedly.

(Photo: ullstein bild)

Perhaps Rüdiger von Fritsch knows best what is really going on with Vladimir Putin. The 68-year-old was the German ambassador in Moscow from 2014 – Russia had just spread to Crimea – until 2019. Now the diplomat says little diplomatic in the Handelsblatt interview about…

  • …Putin’s style: “The Russian leadership actually always tries to avoid the obvious lie. The current attack shows that this is no longer the case. There is also increasing evidence that Putin really is acting alone.”
  • …Putin’s motivation: “One has to ask oneself on which picture of reality the decisions are based. Apparently based on certain obsessions, experienced – or claimed – humiliations and trauma. His vengefulness increasingly dominates his decisions.”
  • …Ukraine’s war chances: “The capabilities and equipment of the Ukrainian armed forces had been significantly improved. But I fear that even the most well-equipped Ukrainian army will not be able to repel a determined attack from the Russian side.”

Conclusion: Perhaps someone should draw Vladimir Putin’s attention to Bertolt Brecht: “The great Carthage fought three wars. After the first it was still powerful. After the second it was still habitable. After the third, it was nowhere to be found.”

Up to now it has been part of Russian politics to decorate the boards of directors of large companies with former top politicians from the western soft countries. After Putin’s Clausewitz attack, the renowned decorative figures no longer like.

  • Italy’s former prime minister Matteo Renzi, he, too, a faded hope, resigns from the board of directors of the car-sharing company Delimobil.
  • Esko ahoformer head of government in Finland, is leaving the board of directors of Sberbank, Russia’s largest financial institution, after six years.
  • Austria’s ex-chancellor Christian Kern in turn gives up as the controller of the Russian state railway: It has “become part of Russian wartime logistics”.
  • Ernesto FerlenghiRussian governor of the Italian Eni group, after all it is no longer on the supervisory board of the Russian power grid company “Federal Grid”.

But there are also some celebrities who remain in the pay of Russian corporations. For example, the French ex-Prime Minister François Fillon, who works for the petrochemical company Sibur and the state-owned oil company Zarubezhneft.

Gerhard Schröder: The former chancellor is repeatedly criticized for his lobbying activities for the Russian energy industry.

Of course, not to forget Gerhard Schröder, who contributes his expertise to the board of directors of the state conglomerate Rosneft and has also been nominated for higher services at Gazprom – the company whose logo the Schalke 04 players no longer want to show on their jerseys. The war must end as quickly as possible, Schröder explains. Both sides – the Russian and the West – made “many mistakes”. Maybe, but Putin made the biggest mistake, the attack, all by himself.

My cultural tip for the weekend: “Belfast” by Kenneth Branagh, a movie against the somber background of a religious war between Protestants and Catholics. However, in an aggressively charged world, he emphasizes the principle of love and harmony. One might take that as a consolation in view of the Putinist marauding campaign.

Above all, it is an evocative memoir and home evocation of the director, who grew up in Belfast, Northern Ireland, until the age of nine. Particularly impressive: Judi Dench and Ciarán Hinds in the role of grandparents.

And then there’s Tesla CEO Elon Musk, temperamentally somewhere between Boris Palmer and Donald Trump. He tweeted against the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which ordered him to create “additional controls” for his way of communicating within his electric car manufacturer. He has now had his attorney send a letter to a judge accusing the SEC of conducting a “harassment campaign” against him and Tesla because he is openly critical of the government.

He had previously compared Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Adolf Hitler in the Twitter medium. The manager showed a picture of Hitler garnished with the sentences: “Stop comparing me to Justin Trudeau” and “I had a budget”. Musk is now showing solidarity with unvaccinated truck drivers who are protesting against compulsory vaccination in Canada.

I wish you a relaxing weekend despite everything.

It greets you cordially

Her

Hans Jürgen Jakobs

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