The new world of changing alliances

On the day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, US President Biden said that Russia’s President Putin would become a pariah on the international stage. But a year later it is clear: For the majority of the world, Putin is not a pariah.

The world community is not united in condemning the Russian attack, and many states are not sanctioning Russia. On the contrary, India is importing record volumes of Russian gas and armaments. Many countries are criticizing the consequences of the war, such as the increased prices for grain and energy. But they don’t criticize the reason for it – the Russian incursion.

In March 2022, 35 countries, including Pakistan and South Africa, abstained in the UN General Assembly condemning the Russian attack. A year later there were at least 32 abstentions. Many of these countries do not share Western criticism of Russia. They point to western rule breaking in the past, for example in Iraq, and criticize the excitement about Ukraine as Western double standards: why the outcry here but not in other conflicts?

Many countries, such as India and Brazil, have not positioned themselves clearly. From their point of view, the Russian war against Ukraine is a regional conflict, but not a question of international order. They are not directly concerned and do not want to get involved in what they see as a problem between the West and Russia.

The motives are varied: be it an anti-American attitude in the Middle East, arms exports for Egypt or general disillusionment with the West, which left them hanging in the pandemic.

Many states do not choose sides

What unites them: everyone has something to gain. Energy prices have fallen since the Russian onslaught and Western import embargoes as Russia seeks buyers to keep its commodity-based economy afloat. Western support is mostly conditional, but the Russian and Chinese alternatives are not.

UN General Assembly in New York

By no means all states have joined the condemnation of the Russian war of aggression.

(Photo: IMAGO/Pacific Press Agency)

This kind of strategic flexibility is called “sitting on the fence” in English, meaning sitting on a fence and not choosing sides. From the perspective of the Europeans and the US, this is an uncomfortable situation. They therefore expected these states to opt for a – theirs! – Decide side.

But from the point of view of the “fence sitter” the situation is not so clear. And “sitting on the fence” is by no means uncomfortable. On the contrary, because it gives (negotiation) room for maneuver, power and autonomy. This self-confidence and insistence on independence, especially when former colonial powers are involved, is combined with criticism of the behavior of some western states and the fact that they define the rules and direction of world politics and that their problems are those of the world.

So why settle for one side when you can have the best of both worlds while sitting on the fence? In the meantime, the Western alliance has understood that: All of a sudden, Europeans and the USA are trying to get these countries, traveling with high-ranking delegations on site, listening, making offers.

This is how the Handelsblatt reports on the Ukraine war:

A definitive positioning of the “fence sitters” is unlikely in the foreseeable future. Rather, the Western states must rethink and recognize that their position does not automatically have majority support and is obviously not attractive. You have to make good offers so that these states do not finally choose Russia (and China). What would a constructive role for the “fence sitters” look like in this war and beyond in a new security order?

Undecided states need individual offers

The rethinking starts with not calling these different countries the “Global South”, but perceiving them individually, from El Salvador to Vietnam. (By the way, the term “West” is just as critical in its generalization). Country-specific cooperation should be designed as a mutually beneficial partnership at eye level.

The invitations to Argentina, India, Indonesia, Senegal and South Africa to the 2022 G7 Summit demonstrate a new approach to partnership. Topics such as just climate transition and infrastructure projects can guide the cooperation. Arms exports are more difficult for Germany, but they are attractive from the point of view of many countries.

And credibility is crucial: It’s irritating when the Europeans support Ukraine while at the same time withdrawing their troops from Mali.

Putin has not become a pariah. But he doesn’t have many new friends either – that’s at least a small success.

More: Do not miss any developments in the Ukraine war – everything new in our news blog.

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