War as a continuation of politics by other means is back in the middle of Europe.
(Photo: AP)
When the Munich Security Conference ended on the afternoon of February 20, 2022, Ukraine had only three days of peace left. Until the end, the politicians, military and researchers gathered in the Bavarian capital hoped that Vladimir Putin was only threatening and that Russia would not attack its neighbors. That was a frivolous, even negligent assumption, as we now know.
The world has been in turmoil since the brutal Russian attack. War as a continuation of politics by other means is conceivable again, even in Europe. As at the height of the Cold War, fear of a nuclear escalation is rampant in NATO countries.
Thinking about spheres of influence, which we thought had been overcome, is back. That shouldn’t really come as a surprise when you look at Russia. Moscow had previously demonstrated that it sees the violent shifting of borders as a legitimate means of building on old fantasies of world power. China has so far pursued its blatant aspirations to become a great power with civilian means. But hardly anyone seriously doubts Beijing’s determination to incorporate Taiwan into its own territory, if necessary by force.
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A year after the start of the Ukraine war, the world is falling back into the era of bloc confrontation. The system competition between autocracies and democracies is no longer only fought ideologically, but also with tanks and rockets. The belief in a functioning international order and the strength of the law is being replaced by the law of the strongest. Decades of economic ties are no longer a guarantee for a resilient relationship.
“In times like these, the Munich Security Conference can hardly be more than a forum for self-assurance by the ‘West’.”
(Photo: dpa)
Large emerging economies and other emerging nations of Africa and Asia may at some point be forced to choose a bloc in the new bipolar order. That this decision will not necessarily be in favor of the liberal democracies is shown by the refusal of India or Brazil to break with Moscow because of the Russian war of aggression. From the point of view of the people in Mumbai or Rio, the growing social divide or the consequences of climate change are more pressing problems than a war thousands of kilometers away in Europe. And Indians see their neighbor China as a far greater threat than Russia.
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In times like these, the Munich Security Conference can hardly be more than a forum for the “West” to assert itself. Russian government representatives were deliberately not invited. The organizers also don’t want to offer a forum in the Bayerischer Hof to the Iranian mullahs’ regime, which brutally suppresses its own people’s striving for freedom. The Chinese government, however, will be prominently represented to promote its model of a socialist market economy. And the “Global South” can decide which side of the new world order to side with.
Even if, contrary to expectations, the Ukraine war should end quickly, it is difficult to imagine a speedy return to the old rule-based order. At least not as long as Vladimir Putin is in power. The fact that NATO is no stranger to thinking in spheres of influence threatens to lead to a new arms race. And wasting financial and human resources that would be needed to solve pressing problems that affect all of humanity. It is important that the new bloc confrontation does not lead to lasting speechlessness. A rift through the world can only be avoided with dialogue – even if at the moment it is the weapons that speak.
More: Guest commentary by Josef Braml: There is a risk of new fractures in the western alliance