Where is the diplomacy in view of the ongoing Russian war of aggression in Ukraine? This question is being asked with increasing urgency by concerned citizens, fueled more recently by fears of nuclear escalation. Yes: Where is it then, “The Art of Diplomacy”, the title of a large anthology recently published by the Munich Security Conference?
A special opportunity for a European diplomatic initiative could be provided by the forthcoming summit of the G20 countries on 15th and 16th November in Bali in the host country Indonesia. Beyond the G7, i.e. the West, the G20 includes countries such as China, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea and India. That’s 60 percent of the world’s population, 75 percent of world exports and 80 percent of global gross domestic product.
In view of the blockade of the UN Security Council by the veto power Russia, Bali therefore offers a geostrategic stage that will probably be unique for a long time to show ways from war to peace in Ukraine.
The EU members represented in Bali, including the EU leadership itself, could try there to prove the EU’s “capability in global politics” – as Jean-Claude Juncker invoked – with a diplomatic “double boom” on two issues.
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First, on options for ending the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Second, the troubling US-Chinese tensions, particularly over the Taiwan issue.
Two weeks ago, 99-year-old Henry Kissinger told the Asia Society in New York that after the 20th party congress, China could aim for a temporary stabilization of its heavily strained relations with the West. In Beijing, people are not only aware of the currently less than pleasant economic realities, but also of the reputation-endangering effects of the brutal warfare of partner Russia in Ukraine.
Communist Party likely to expand control in China
The EU, in turn, is China’s most important trading partner, needed to revive the pandemic-weakened Chinese economy, given a declining birth rate and an aging society.
This can at least be a temporary opportunity for Germany and the EU, and it would therefore not be the wrong signal, but the right one, if Olaf Scholz (SPD) were to be accompanied by a business delegation on his trip to Beijing in early November.
The French President, the Chinese President and the Federal Chancellor joined forces in May for a virtual summit.
(Photo: IMAGO/Xinhua)
Of course, we must have no illusions that Beijing will consistently expand its claim to regional dominance and that the Chinese Communist Party’s ideological power, control of life and economy in China will continue to increase.
Nevertheless, in view of these constraints and the current constellation of power, there is now a short possible window of opportunity for a dual diplomatic initiative by the EU: First, the Europeans in Bali should persuade China to play a more active role in trying to isolate Putin even further, while at the same time giving him a perspective to to initiate an end to the war.
China is the most important but not the only G20 partner to be persuaded to resist Russian colonialist imperialism in Bali: India, Pakistan and Indonesia alone represent almost two billion people!
First of all, if Putin attends physically, the pressure on him on the spot must also be increased. For example, the G7 countries could decide to only speak about Russian war crimes in Ukraine in front of Putin and in front of the cameras. At the same time, however, Putin could be signaled that an impulse to end the war should emanate from Bali.
Conversations must be confidential
Why should this be a European initiative? Because Beijing would like to avoid nothing more than the impression that it is being drawn into the American camp by its hostile rival, the USA. And that is why such steps are not suitable for public announcements, but must be discussed via “backchannel diplomacy”, i.e. confidentially behind closed doors.
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In this way, a kind of confidential G20 contact group could be set up in cooperation between the UN Secretary General and Turkey, who have already been tried and tested in the Ukraine crisis, together with China and the EU, with discreet support from Washington. step by step to explore and work out modalities for ending the war.
Nota bene: Nothing, absolutely nothing, should give the impression that we Europeans are no longer standing firmly on the side of Ukraine in its attempt to liberate all areas occupied by Russia. But hardly any player has more potential influence on Moscow than Beijing. Showing off that influence more – that should be our first priority in Bali.
The leadership in Beijing has close ties to the Kremlin.
(Photo: AP)
Second, the EU should warn China and the US – confidentially – not to let their bilateral relations get out of hand. “Manage your relationship” could be the European petition, in line with Kissinger’s spirit. Relations with China are so important for Europe in the long term that they must not fall victim to US-Chinese misunderstandings or unwanted risks of military escalation.
Of course, it will be of central importance to leave Beijing in no doubt as to where the EU would stand if the worst came to the worst: namely clearly on the side of the USA. Effective deterrence in the matter of Taiwan is in the very best interests of Europe.
The EU has little to lose in Bali. But it could show that it is learning the “language of power” (Josep Borrell) and defending its strategic interests. A European diplomatic “double-thumb” in Bali, wouldn’t that be worth trying?
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