We are currently living through a turning point, ushered in by the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. This war costs many human lives and has led to deep political, social and often existential insecurity in Europe.
In particular, it is about the security of the energy supply, which is of central importance for the stability of society and industry in Germany and Europe. Germany is particularly concerned with this debate, not only because of its dependence on Russian gas, but also with a view to dealing with renewable energies.
The demand for an acceleration of the energy transition is currently experiencing an unexpectedly high intensity in the population, industry and politics.
The acceleration of the energy transition in Germany is a central element of the coalition agreement of the federal government, which, in addition to ambitious expansion targets for electricity generation from photovoltaics and wind, also calls for the achievement of a power supply based almost entirely on green electricity by 2035 and climate neutrality by 2045.
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The coalition agreement is currently being supplemented by a more than 500-page package of immediate energy measures, the so-called Easter package.
In doing so, the federal government wants to implement the energy policy content of the coalition agreement in concrete terms and under the stipulation that “the use of renewable energies is in the overriding public interest and serves public safety”.
A look at the availability of renewable energies in Germany shows that the “energy transition in Germany” must speed up significantly and the course must be set anew because the train has so far rolled in the wrong direction or has remained far away from the goals set.
As an industrialized nation, we have an enormous appetite for energy, but we currently have to import a large part of our raw materials for generating energy from abroad, a third of which is oil.
In the case of electricity, generation has decreased in recent years due to the shutdown of coal and nuclear power plants. And this despite the fact that we need more and more electricity, especially green electricity for the charging infrastructure for electromobility and the production of green hydrogen.
Approval procedures for solar and wind power plants must be accelerated
For onshore wind energy, which currently has a capacity of 56 gigawatts, the “Easter package” defines an expansion target of a total of 115 gigawatts by 2030, with an annual increase of ten gigawatts from 2025 to also compensate for the loss of old systems.
In order to achieve this goal, approval procedures must be massively shortened and storage systems and control power plants that can be accessed quickly must be set up quickly.
For offshore wind, which currently has a capacity of almost eight gigawatts, the coalition agreement stipulates an expansion target of a total of 30 gigawatts of capacity by 2030.
The last tender in 2021 resulted in a bidding capacity of just under one gigawatt (with commissioning in 2026), which is why the expansion target set for 2030 can hardly be classified as realistic from today’s perspective.
For photovoltaics, which currently has a capacity of almost 60 gigawatts, the “Easter Package” defines an expansion target of 215 gigawatts by 2030. Here, too, supply chain problems are increasingly becoming a fundamental stopper, which is why this expansion target currently also seems unrealistic.
In principle, there is sufficient space to achieve the aforementioned expansion targets for electricity production from photovoltaics and wind power. However, further expert opinions are required for the expansion of onshore and offshore wind power, for example to rule out endangering rare animals.
So far, the natural fluctuations in photovoltaics and wind power due to day-night rhythms and wind fluctuations, which have to be absorbed by investment-intensive storage and control systems for a continuous power supply, have been underestimated.
>> Read here: Up to 21 euros more per megawatt hour – How a new law could slow down the expansion of wind power
Because of all these challenges, do we already have to say goodbye to the goals of a drastically accelerated energy transition before the train even gets going?
The answer is a clear no. But if we want to achieve our goals even remotely, we have to change our previous approach radically, boldly and decisively.
The “Easter package” already started the process by not only further specifying the ambitious expansion goals of the coalition agreement, but also creating incentives and procedures for their implementation.
Examples are the anchoring of the expansion goals in the Renewable Energy Sources Act, additional tender capacities for areas that have not been previously examined for offshore wind projects, the strengthening of community energy projects and the targeted promotion of modern photovoltaic technologies such as floating PV, agri-PV and moor PV.
However, the “Easter package” will not solve the main obstacles to the expansion of renewable energies. These include, for example, the inconsistent distance rules and insufficient area designations for onshore wind power or the complex and lengthy approval procedures, which previously usually took up to six years from planning to commissioning.
The federal government must make radical adjustments with the summer package
Now it depends on the already announced “summer package” of the federal government! Numerous laws have to be adapted in order to achieve the ambitious goals.
The building and approval law for wind energy must be more efficient and the renewal of existing systems be relieved. Wind power needs stable framework conditions over many years for constant expansion.
At the same time, the “summer package” must be “H2-ready” in terms of content, because hydrogen must make the main contribution to securing the base load of the electricity grid in the long term.
At the same time as the “summer package”, a decision should be taken on the establishment of a national energy council. With such an independent body from politics, business and science, all urgently needed energy measures could be integrated in a pragmatic, knowledgeable and, above all, dialogue, and decisions could be taken more quickly.
The Commission for Growth, Structural Change and Employment set up by the Federal Government, which has intensively and successfully accompanied the phase-out of coal, can serve as a model for such an Energy Council. With specific ideas, advice and suggestions, the committee could help to achieve a broad social consensus and thus contribute to the success of the energy transition.
With a central, integrated Energy Council instead of the current many small, isolated individual bodies, the speed of decision-making could also be significantly increased. The National Energy Council could become the orchestrating “task force” for a successful energy transition.
The author: Dirk Stenkamp is Chairman of the Board of Tüv Nord.
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