Washington The US Democrats are preparing for a complicated year, because the new US Congress will be constituted on Tuesday. Then the time of their unqualified majority in Washington will be over.
In the midterm elections in December, US President Joe Biden’s party lost its lead in the House of Representatives, with the Republicans taking control there. The Democrats were able to hold the Senate. The result is a divided US Congress.
This is most likely to have an impact on the domestic political agenda, of which Biden will probably only be able to implement very little in the second half of his term of office. But the President is also dependent on Congress for key foreign policy issues – especially those that are relevant to Europe. UkraineChina, Iran – what the world can expect from the new US Congress: the overview.
Shortly before Christmas, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy traveled to Washington to thank the Americans for their financial injections and to demand new support. Without the West, he warned, his country could not survive the Russian invasion.
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Last year, the United States transferred more than $100 billion to Ukraine. Another $45 billion was recently approved, along with deliveries of the Patriot air defense system. In political Washington, there is no expectation that the war in Ukraine will be over in the near future – so it amounts to a permanent US involvement.
Shortly before Christmas, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy traveled to Washington to thank the Americans for their financial injections.
(Photo: dpa)
However, some right-wing politicians could try to curb Ukraine funds. Laura von Daniels, head of the Americas research group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), writes that Biden can continue his support for Ukraine, “but probably within tighter financial limits”.
That, the expert explains, has direct consequences for the EU: the signals from Washington increased “the pressure on European states to review their own contributions to support Ukraine.”
Because of their new majority in the House of Representatives, Republican votes are imperative to raise the US debt ceiling and pass the annual budget.
If they want to push through certain demands – such as cuts in social spending or more money for border protection – the Ukraine aid could become a bargaining chip.
>> Read here: Dealing with Ukraine is a permanent risk assessment for Biden
A foretaste of the uncertain times on Capitol Hill is available this Tuesday. Then the Republican Kevin McCarthy wants to be elected “Speaker of the House”, i.e. the chairman of the parliamentary chamber and thus the third highest office in the state. To do that, he needs the votes of almost every Republican in the chamber. To get more votes, McCarthy could promise them a tougher Ukraine course.
2. China: More regulation – and more pressure on the EU
The already fragile relationship between the US and China could deteriorate even further. So far, the Biden government has been pursuing a two-pronged approach: the United States wants to weaken China’s economy, for example through punitive tariffs and export controls in strategically important sectors.
At the same time, however, Biden wants to maintain the dialogue with Beijing in order to be able to work together pragmatically on climate policy or on the North Korea issue. In October, Biden and China’s head of state Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the G20 summit, Foreign Minister Blinken wants to travel to China at the beginning of the year.
In October, Biden and China’s head of state Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the G20 summit.
(Photo: AP)
Also, the US State Department recently established a symbolic “China House” to advance a shared “vision of an open, inclusive international system.” With the constitution of the new congress, the delicate approach could quickly be over. The next presidential campaign is not far away, and Democrats and Republicans may want to outdo each other with anti-China policies.
Congress recently banned government officials from using Tiktok, but far more far-reaching restrictions are likely: Congress is considering unprecedented government powers to screen outbound US investments.
If the so-called “National Critical Capabilities Defense Act” (NCCDA) is passed, numerous high-tech industries would be affected, from aerospace and defense to fintech and pharmaceuticals. The aim is to tighten controls on the flow of US capital and intellectual property abroad, particularly to China and Russia.
The tough anti-China course is having an impact on Europe. “For example, Washington could ask the EU to expand its sanctions against China and improve its investment controls,” writes SWP expert von Daniels.
>> Read here: New flows of goods in Asia – China in particular relies on the world’s largest free trade zone
A new China committee in the House of Representatives, headed by Republican MP Mike Gallagher, is to put pressure on Beijing at various levels. And McCarthy, the potential new speaker of the House of Representatives, announced a trip to Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its territory. A visit by the previous spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi was condemned in Beijing as an affront.
A visit by the previous spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi was condemned in Beijing as an affront.
(Photo: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire)
The US government fears a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. That would not only be devastating in terms of security policy – Taiwan also plays a major economic role for the USA: The island is a loyal customer of American defense technology and a leading global chip manufacturer.
3. Iran: The JCPOA nuclear deal is shelved
Republicans want to attack Biden’s Iran policy. From their point of view, the US President is too hesitant to deal with Tehran. The regime violently suppresses demonstrations, carries out public hangings and supplies Russia with drones that are used in the Ukraine war. The US President has tightened the sanctions, but further escalation is not in his interest.
Diplomacy appears to be at an impasse as Tehran continues to enrich uranium.
(Photo: imago images / UPI Photo)
A return to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) nuclear deal – which Donald Trump canceled in 2018 – is one of Biden’s campaign promises. The JCPOA is currently being shelved because the White House currently does not believe a compromise with Iran is possible. However, Biden has not yet officially ruled out a return to the contract. “I think behind it is the fear of not wanting to be too tough,” said former security adviser in the White House under Trump, John Bolton, the Handelsblatt.
>> Read here: West has been exerting pressure for years – why sanctions against the mullah regime are failing
Biden could get more pressure from Israel, where Benjamin Netanyahu was re-elected prime minister. In 2015, Netanyahu accepted an invitation from the Republicans in the House of Representatives and in a speech sharply criticized the plans for the JCPOA. Possibly, so it is said on Capitol Hill, there could be another performance.
In this mixed situation, it hardly seems possible for Biden to resume nuclear negotiations with Tehran – even if concerns are growing in Europe about Iran becoming nuclear-armed.
Diplomacy appears to be at an impasse as Tehran continues to enrich uranium. The balance of power in Congress, combined with the unstable situation in Iran, “makes it highly unlikely that the United States will return to the JCPOA in the near future,” writes the Washington-based think tank Arab Center.
The new chief foreign policy officer in the House of Representatives, Republican Michael McCaul, is likely to put Iran at the top of the agenda. The chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal in the summer of 2021 is also to be discussed, and an investigation in Congress is considered certain.
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