Returns on leading altcoin Ethereum have historically lagged Bitcoin in October. But analysts see signs that this trend will reverse
QCP Capital analysts: The leading altcoin is preparing to return!
cryptokoin.comAs you follow from , the performance of the leading altcoin Ethereum was not very encouraging. Historically, Ethereum’s average returns have lagged behind Bitcoin in October. However, QCP Capital analysts note optimistic indicators that many derivatives traders believe ETH has the potential to break the underperformance trend. In this context, QCP Capital analysts make the following assessment:
Historically, October is a strong month for Bitcoin, with an average gain of 22.9% in eight of the last nine years. Ether also tends to perform well, but its average return for October is around 5%.
However, there are signs of optimism for the leading altcoin in the near term. QCP Capital points to derivatives market indicators. In this context, “We observed a significant number of ETH October call options being purchased this morning,” he says. There are over 63,600 ETH call option contracts in the current market with a face value of $167 million expiring on October 11. Another 26,200 call option contracts worth $69 million will expire on October 18, Deribit data shows.
What levels do options point to for ETH?
According to Deribit data, ETH call options with a strike price of $2,800 expiring on October 11 experienced the highest trading volume in the last 24 hours. Notably, both options expiring on October 11 and October 18 show significantly fewer put options. This disparity signals bullish sentiment among many traders who are betting that the altcoin price will rise above the $2,800 mark by expiration. The increase in demand for these call options reflects growing near-term optimism for ETH in the derivatives market.
Historical price trend of Ethereum in Q4
Meanwhile, ETH typically generates solid returns in the fourth quarter of the year. Bitfinex analysts emphasize that the performance of the broader altcoin sector tends to be more diversified. Historically, the first quarter is usually the strongest period for ETH and the broader altcoin market. Additionally, the second quarter also delivers strong results at times. However, analysts also note that historical data for ETH and altcoins is more limited than for Bitcoin. Bitfinex analysts share the following assessment:
It is important to note that the data for ETH and altcoin returns is quite dynamic and relatively small compared to Bitcoin. Because ETH only started trading in the second quarter of 2016, and most of the top 100 altcoins by market cap were created only in the last three to four years.
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