Dusseldorf, Frankfurt The Federal Statistical Office has postponed the publication of new price data for the German economy. New data on inflation developments in January were originally supposed to come out on Tuesday. However, due to “a technical problem in data processing”, the announcement will not be made until the week of February 6th to 10th, the Federal Statistical Office announced on Monday. The office will announce the exact date on Friday.
The background is a software problem that means that the statisticians cannot process the data from the countries. Several state statistical offices had previously postponed the announcement. The nationwide estimate is based on their results.
The January inflation data for the euro area should nevertheless be published on Wednesday as planned, the European statistical office Eurostat said at the request of the Handelsblatt. The experts use an estimate for Germany without publishing it.
Germany is the largest economy in the euro area. For this reason, the Eurostat data on Wednesday must also be viewed with caution. The estimate of the German values is based on time series data that extrapolate trends from the past.
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The problem with time series data: they usually classify strong fluctuations as exceptions and do not adequately reflect fundamental structural breaks. Especially in times when the general economic conditions of an economy are changing rapidly – as is currently the case – time series data are subject to criticism. They are one reason why the ECB underestimated inflation in the euro area for a long time.
According to a survey of economists from twelve banks by the Reuters news agency, consumer prices are likely to have risen by 9.2 percent in January compared to the same month last year. Inflation was 8.6 percent in December, down from 10.0 percent in November and 10.4 percent in October.
More: ECB Director Fabio Panetta against committing to rate hikes beyond February