Second round crash in the stock market! Bank shares crashed!

Yesterday, Türkiye held one of the most well-attended election days in its history. However, the results indicated the worst result for stocks in Borsa Istanbul. The good result was that the elections ended in the first round. However, the results of the polls revealed that the elections were moved to the second round. Looking at the first trading day of the week, the result was as follows. Hard sales of those who took positions on the election result in the week before the election.

The stock market, which rose with bank shares before the election, crashed with bank shares after the election.

The banking index lost more than 9 percent. The Bist100 index, on the other hand, lost nearly 3 percent.

Turkey’s 5-year credit risk premium (CDS) rose 70 basis points to 576

The most falling shares were: YKBNK, GARAN, AKBNK, KCHOL, CCOLA, BIMAS, AEFES…

On the other hand, there was an increase in stocks such as THYAO, PETKM, ENKAI, DOAS, EREGL.

This shows that, in fact, the shares bought by foreigners are sold, and when they are sold, they are bought.

So what could happen next? A tough 15-day period awaits the stock market investor.

The 15 most challenging days for the stock market investor

First of all, the parties will continue to appeal to the YSK about the election results until Tuesday. With the decision to be made here, the results of the first round elections will be final. YSK will announce that there is no winner in the first round of the elections and will announce the date of the second round. This means a new 15-day process from today. It is certain that the index will remain under pressure during this time, which will be very difficult for stock market investors.

The first round results are as follows: Incumbent President Erdogan is the closest candidate to win the second round. In these 15 days, the opposition wing will make maneuvers in order to put its own candidate forward. Polls will start sharing runoff predictions again. And each poll will send a new message to investors for Turkey’s next government.

Foreign investors are not expected to take any new action according to the current results. An aggressive change is not expected in the foreign exchange policy and interest rate policy. This means that a positive development in the domestic market dynamics is not expected. Transaction volume is seen as important for the coming days. After today’s sales volume, daily trading volume is important, especially in a quieter market tomorrow.

In the upcoming surveys, if there is a signal about a policy change, it is thought that there may be a revival in the market.

So, what kind of course do brokerage houses expect in the stock market after the election results?

The pricing in the markets in the week we left behind was that the presidential election was likely to end in the first round and in this context, an important uncertainty would be eliminated. In line with this expectation, we saw that the appreciation in Borsa Istanbul approached 9%. However, although it has not been finalized yet, the current figures indicate that the possibility of the second round outweighs. While this means a new uncertainty that will last for two weeks, it creates a picture contrary to the pricing formed in the week we left behind.”

Celebrity&CO

A1 Capital:
The election atmosphere in the country has ended on the side of the Assembly, but as of 07.35, there is no candidate who reached 50% in the Presidency and the election seems to be in the second round. Since this will create uncertainty on the market, we may encounter sales on the BIST side. But if it is finished in the first round, we can continue where we left off after a short selling pressure.

Banking index maintained its positive divergence in BIST, which closed the last trading day of last week with a 1% level of sales. The alliance, which stated that they will return to orthodox economic policies in the election polls, was reflected in the pricing last week, and the index showed a sharp rise led by the banking stocks, but the opposite situation may prevail today with the lack of similar results in the election results. In addition, we expect the political developments to continue to be determinative in terms of direction and volatility in the short-term, with the possibility of the election going to the second round according to uncertain results.”

Tera Investment

Integral Investment: Keep some cash

As a result of the presidential election held yesterday, it is understood that the election has reached the second round. That means an extra 15 days of uncertainty for the markets. Therefore, we can say that it is possible to see a fluctuating course in the markets that will remain open for the next 10 business days. It is possible to see the pressure of the lack of clarity in the election at the opening in the morning. Therefore, behind the enthusiastic pricing that the election is over in the first round, we have an opening expectation. After Muharrem İnce’s announcement that he was withdrawing from the election last week, 1.3% of the optimistic mood above 7% was taken back on Friday. Probably some of it can be retrieved today as well. It seems that we will experience the uncertainty that the markets do not like for another 15 days. It is also important that the process is calm and clean. The stock market index may be affected by the political developments that may be experienced until the 2nd round, May 28. In a way, where the perceptions are shifting, it can shift to the Stock Exchange. It can be a difficult 15 days for the short-term investor. Therefore, the difficulty of credit, high-risk and leveraged transactions for short-term investors continues. We think that keeping some cash may be beneficial during this period.

“BIST100 closed the day at 4,796 with a decrease of 1% on Friday. A two-week extension of the selection process could lead to the reversal of last week’s rally. We can retest 4.350 – 4.400 support.
Above, the range of 4,950 – 5,000 is our resistance level. Turkish 5-Year CDS, which closed at 500 on Friday, rose to 576 in the first quotations this morning. The developments in the foreign exchange and interest markets will determine where the stock market will be balanced.”

Ata Investment

COMMON RECOMMENDATIONS OF INTERMEDIARY STRATEGISTS TO THE QUESTION OF WHAT TO DO IN THE STOCK EXCHANGE:

• The first day is the day of the strongest reaction to the election results. Therefore, do not act in panic. Look for better in-session opportunities to sell, even if you’re at a loss in stocks and want to sell
• There will be a fairly long 15-day opportunity period to make new purchases in the stock market. Since the fluctuations will be high in this period, new opportunities for purchase will also arise. Opportunity to buy shares cheaper may persist until the price signals an upward turn.
• Take care to keep cash as high as possible in the portfolio. This allows you to act quickly to seize opportunities.
• Short-term hit-and-runs in price drops are considered risky in the current market structure. Therefore, it is recommended to consider the declines as an opportunity for long-term investment.