It was a legendary appearance by Gerhard Schröder. In 2005, the SPD Chancellor was voted out of office after seven years – with a wafer-thin residue on the Union. But in the “elephant round” of the top candidates who assessed the result on election evening, he did not want to hear anything about a defeat.
A chancellorship of the election winner Angela Merkel referred Schröder into the realm of illusion: “We have to leave the church in the village for once.” He will hold talks on forming a government – and they will be successful. At that time the Union had won 35.2 percent of the vote, the SPD 34.2.
16 years later, a similar close race between the Conservatives and the Social Democrats is emerging, the SPD is only marginally ahead. So what conclusions can be drawn from the elephant round? Who declares themselves the election winner? And are coalitions already being explored? An overview:
SPD Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz leaves no doubt that he believes that his party will play a leading role in a future government coalition. It is about getting a “good, pragmatic government on the way”. And that must happen as quickly as possible, emphasized Scholz in the group of top candidates and party leaders in the joint broadcast of ARD and ZDF on Sunday evening. He will do everything to ensure that there is a new coalition before Christmas.
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The SPD candidate for chancellor does not see the danger that an alliance of three parties could be unstable: there are neighboring countries in which such constellations have long been a reality.
The SPD top candidate wants a coalition with the Greens and the FDP.
(Photo: dpa)
The FDP, Greens and SPD recorded gains in the election, while others lost. That is also a message in the direction of forming a coalition, said Scholz. The Union has achieved its historically worst result, while the SPD and Greens were able to increase significantly compared to 2017.
In the fight against climate change, Scholz considers “primarily private investments” to be necessary. His goal is to make Germany a modern, climate-neutral industrial country – a clear offer in the direction of greenery.
Union does not want to accept the losing role
CDU Chancellor candidate Armin Laschet had already emphasized before the party people in the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus that he would do everything possible to form a government under the leadership of the Union. He repeated this in the elephant group: The loss of votes was “not nice”, but now it was important to bring together an alliance that would bring Germany forward and reconcile different directions. “I am ready for that.”
Can Armin Laschet (CDU, r) and CSU boss Markus Söder forge a Jamaica alliance?
(Photo: dpa)
This also applies if, after all votes have been counted, the Union should actually only land in second place. “Only someone who also has a majority in the German Bundestag will become chancellor,” said Laschet, referring to Scholz, who had registered his right to the Chancellery. Economic strength and stability and market-based solutions are important, emphasized the CDU candidate for chancellor – and thus clearly showed sympathy for an alliance with the FDP.
Even with Laschet, there should be a new government before Christmas. This is necessary because Germany will take over the presidency of the seven most important industrial nations (G7) in the coming year: One cannot afford to first explore for weeks, as in 2017, and then enter into coalition negotiations.
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However, before the election, CSU leader Markus Söder said that the Union, in second place, should go into the opposition rather than join a government. But he didn’t want to let that stand so clearly on election evening. The red-red-green model got a clap from the voters and that was also a vote of no confidence in a Chancellor Scholz.
It depends on developing a common philosophy and understanding of what is necessary in this country. If he thinks of the Greens bosses Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck and FDP boss Christian Lindner, then you could definitely advance something together.
A new edition of the grand coalition, which would be mathematically possible, ruled out both Laschet and Söder. After 16 years in the Merkel government, there is a desire of the citizens for change: “You have to tackle it forcefully,” emphasized the CSU boss, and there must also be a vision for the future behind it. And that is more pronounced in the Union than in the SPD.
The Groko and her working style are not promising, Laschet also emphasized: “We need a real fresh start here.” Both Union politicians avoided questions about the personal consequences of the historically worst election result of the CDU / CSU: They had a “great final spurt” and responsibility you always wear together, said Söder. When asked whether the Union would have done better with him as candidate for chancellor, he said: “That is really yesterday’s news.”
The Greens want to help shape future issues
Green top candidate Annalena Baerbock makes it clear what matters to her if the Greens participate in government: “The next federal government must be a climate government,” emphasized Baerbock. The renewal of the country is “the top priority”. It is about “making Germany climate-neutral”. That is the most important topic of the next legislative period, the guard rails have to be set now.
The Green top candidate emphasized that she wants to lead talks on forming a coalition with her co-chair Habeck: “We are going into the explorations as a team,” she said. Baerbock also questioned the debt brake of the Basic Law in the TV round: “If you want to tackle the big future issues of our country, you have to add an investment rule to the debt brake,” said Baerbock. Massive investments, for example in digital infrastructure or in education, are among the central points of the Greens election program.
The FDP first wants to sound out intersections with the Greens
“The FDP was and is ready to take responsibility,” said party leader Christian Lindner. The Liberals ruled the countries very successfully in a wide variety of constellations, in Rhineland-Palatinate, for example, in a traffic light. But one cannot conclude from this that this is now the FDP’s preferred coalition.
Lindner made no secret of the fact that he continues to hope for an alliance with the Union. With Armin Laschet, it was possible in 2017 in North Rhine-Westphalia to form a government within four weeks. In the federal government, on the other hand, coalition negotiations between the Union, FDP and the Greens did not even take place within four weeks.
Linder suggested that the Greens and the FDP, where there had been the greatest polarization and friction in the past, should first seek dialogue with one another. Perhaps this also makes sense because around 75 percent of those eligible to vote did not vote for the future Chancellor’s party. But action must always be based on the thought that prosperity must first be generated before it can be distributed. The Liberals reject a loosening of the debt brake or tax increases.
More: Union loses almost 1.4 million voters to the SPD