Russia’s war of aggression has increased Europe’s dependence on the US

The author

dr Jana Puglierin is Head of Office and Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

In the fall of 2021, the honeymoon in transatlantic relations that began after Joe Biden’s election victory was over. The uncoordinated US withdrawal from Afghanistan had dramatically demonstrated to Europeans their dependence on American decisions.

Without the US, they could not even have carried out the evacuation mission at Kabul airport. The Aukus deal, a new security partnership between the US, UK and Australia, subsequently duped Paris, whose long-planned submarine deal with Canberra fell through as a result. Suddenly, Joe Biden’s “foreign policy for the middle class” sounded a lot like Donald Trump’s “America first” to many European ears.

At the time, Biden implemented what his predecessors Barack Obama and Donald Trump had announced. US foreign policy should focus much more on the Indo-Pacific in the future. European security had slipped down the list of priorities in Washington in recent years.

For the Europeans, it became clear once again that instead of being able to rely on the United States at all times and everywhere, they themselves would have to make a larger and more substantial contribution to maintaining European security in the future.

In February 2023, however, there is no sign of this. On the contrary: Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has once again clearly demonstrated the necessity and importance of US security guarantees for Europe. The Biden government foresaw the invasion early on, while Chancellor Scholz and President Macron believed to the last that a reconciliation of interests with Russia was possible by reviving the Minsk process.

Dependence on the White House increases

Since then, Americans have spent many hours and much shuttle diplomacy engaging Europeans and coordinating Western responses to the outbreak of war. They have made by far the greatest contribution to the defense of Ukraine.

leopard 2

The delivery of Leopard 2 tanks and their release for export to third countries linked to the simultaneous delivery of American Abrams tanks is an example of dependency.

(Photo: Bloomberg)

The Europeans are only second-line support, even though the war is taking place on their own doorstep. Even though Germany, after initial hesitation, has meanwhile done a remarkable job – the USA has supplied around ten times more arms than Europe’s largest economy.

In addition, Europe is obviously comfortable with its role in the second row. Instead of preparing for the day when Washington could play a smaller role in Europe, everything is pointing towards even greater dependence on the White House – politically and militarily. The fact that Chancellor Olaf Scholz linked the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks and their export approval for third countries to the simultaneous delivery of American Abrams tanks is just one example.

This is all too understandable. While Europeans have talked a lot about “wake-up calls” in recent years, the reality is that they have fallen even further behind the US, whose military capabilities have grown more amid all the European talk of “strategic autonomy”. European austerity measures of past decades led to a reduction in reserves of tanks, spare parts and ammunition.

Defense spending in Europe increased in the years after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the European Union tried to revitalize the common security and defense policy through a number of initiatives. The Europeans have not become more able to defend themselves as a result.

This is how the Handelsblatt reports on the Ukraine war:

If they now fail in their joint efforts to mobilize even 62 Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine (let alone maintain and possibly increase their numbers), it would be a strategic declaration of bankruptcy that will not go unnoticed in Washington either.

Biden is a godsend for Europe

Europeans should be aware of what a godsend Joe Biden is for Europe. As early as 2024, an American president could come into office for whom the connection to Europe is less important. The US National Security Strategy, released by the Biden administration in October 2022, notes that China – and not Russia – remains the top strategic challenge facing the United States.

Joe Biden

As early as 2024, an American president could come into office for whom the connection to Europe is less important than Biden.

(Photo: dpa)

Europeans must now invest more and better in their own security and defence, overcome fragmentation, work towards full interoperability of their armed forces, work together to close critical capability gaps and build a resilient, competitive and innovative technological and industrial base for the military create European defence.

This is the only way for them to remain an attractive partner for the United States – and at the same time to be prepared for the time when the USA will again invest its resources much more in line with its actual priorities.

dr Jana Puglierin is Head of Office and Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

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